CME's Duffy Clashes With CFTC, Kalshi on Prediction Markets
A 100M-contract TradFi incumbent, a fast-growing prediction platform, and the federal regulator publicly sparred in a CFTC committee room. The bill will eventually land on retail traders.
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A 100M-contract TradFi incumbent, a fast-growing prediction platform, and the federal regulator publicly sparred in a CFTC committee room. The bill will eventually land on retail traders.
The shift matters because CME hedge-fund positioning has historically leaned short as a basis-trade hedge; a genuine net-long flip signals directional conviction, not just arbitrage.
The 77 contracts (55 standard + 22 Micro) target retail traders already comfortable with leveraged derivatives via Robinhood-style apps, while regulators and rival exchanges race to define overnight…
The dispute is not about QBTC alone: CME argues that securities exchanges cannot list derivatives on commodities, and a ruling for CME could force every cash-settled crypto index product back through…
K33 flags average daily spot volume at $2.2B alongside dormant CME and perpetual futures open interest, a setup that amplifies the risk of outsized moves when positioning finally breaks.
Hyperliquid's oil-perp volume hit a $1.2B record on a Sunday while CME sat dark, and Energy Aspects says the long-standing Friday volatility discount in WTI options is narrowing as traders finally…
The product lands at a moment retail single-name leverage is migrating off broker margin and onto centrally cleared venues, with implications for both equity vol and crypto perp-style flows.
The suit tests whether perpetuals are futures or swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, a ruling that decides whether the offshore leverage machine becomes a domestic product or stays gated behind…
The cost is the friction of two clearing systems that refuse to recognize each other's hedges, and it can flip direction: the same comparison produced a negative 4.77-point reading at the fifth…
Selig's rare on-the-record rebuke of a self-certification by a systemically important venue is the actual story: CME now faces a stay and a public record on how it uses its own rule-making shortcut.
The unusual suit argues Kalshi's Bitcoin perps are "swaps" under Dodd-Frank, not futures — and that the CFTC rubber-stamped the listing without doing the legal analysis.
The lawsuit argues perps should be swaps, not futures — and the legal read is that CME has both the procedural and substantive advantage heading into a likely injunction fight.
A regulator-favored derivatives giant is challenging whether a CFTC-regulated event-contract venue can quietly become a leveraged Bitcoin venue — the case will set the boundary between event…
The suit would hinge on Dodd-Frank's swap-vs-future line — and with CME stepping in, the fight stops being a CFTC-vs-predictiom-market story and becomes a battle over who gets to define the next…
The exchange argues the CFTC's decade-first nod to onshore perpetual contracts undercuts its own dominance in regulated US crypto derivatives — a turf fight with structural consequences for how…
The fight isn't over perpetuals themselves — it's over whether a regulated venue like CME gets first crack at the benchmark, with Duffy arguing Dodd-Frank makes the venue question settled law.
The new product lets traders isolate four-week BTC price swings without taking directional exposure — a sign the institutional hedging stack around bitcoin is finally catching up to spot demand.
The contracts track the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index and let institutions express a pure view on four-week BTC turbulence without picking a direction, broadening the regulated crypto hedging…
CME Group CEO Terry Duffy has issued a stark warning about the push to introduce perpetual futures contracts in US…
The accumulation started 18 days before the summit vote failed, and now lands on the same week CME opens ADA to 24/7 trading — the timing is the read.