Kalshi, Polymarket Split on Oct. 1 Shutdown Odds
The divergence makes prediction markets a live gauge of Washington risk, while both sub-50% readings keep the macro signal constructive.
Every Zipp story tagged #FiscalPolicy, newest first.
The divergence makes prediction markets a live gauge of Washington risk, while both sub-50% readings keep the macro signal constructive.
The milestone focuses attention on borrowing needs, Treasury issuance and investor demand rather than creating a standalone signal for risk assets.
Near-term fiscal uncertainty is lower for risk assets, but the House still must approve the measure before Sept. 30.
The policy ties Zimbabwe's state-backed commodity exposure to a fixed fiscal commitment as gold prices fluctuate.
The vote offers markets a near-term fiscal reprieve, but it only postpones the broader dispute over government spending.
The trajectory shows debt doubling inside a decade, with the steepest single-year jumps landing in 2020 and the post-2022 fiscal expansion.
The refunds are roughly the size of a major bank's quarterly profit, and the legal ground has shifted beneath every tariff authority the executive branch leaned on this term.
The Coinbase CEO argues AI, robotics and crypto can outrun the debt and inflation the US has failed to structurally guard against, a populist-fiscal frame from one of crypto's loudest CEOs.
Musk frames the policy as a hedge against an AI-driven deflationary collapse — direct fiscal transfers as the macroeconomic response when productivity outruns consumer demand.
The $80 billion supplemental request would sit on top of the FY2026 base budget, and a no-pass scenario forces the Pentagon into fresh stopgap funding — the third continuing-resolution cycle in two…
U.S. interest payments on public debt have reached a record $616 billion, and the trajectory is accelerating: costs are…
President Trump has acknowledged that the United States will likely need to refund approximately $149 billion in tariff…
Senate procedural rules could prevent the allocation of up to $1 billion in taxpayer funds earmarked for security…
The US national debt is rapidly approaching the $40 trillion mark, a threshold that underscores the scale of…
The CRFB's debt-to-GDP marker hit 100.2% in Q1 2026, only the third time in modern history after WWII and the early-COVID GDP crash — and it gives Bitcoin's scarcity thesis a live, not abstract,…