Kalshi, Polymarket Split on Oct. 1 Shutdown Odds
The divergence makes prediction markets a live gauge of Washington risk, while both sub-50% readings keep the macro signal constructive.
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The divergence makes prediction markets a live gauge of Washington risk, while both sub-50% readings keep the macro signal constructive.
Congressional passage remains the key test for whether Kalshi's lower October shutdown risk holds.
Two-track December deadlines mean BTC faces two separate shutdown brinkmanship events, each with its own reconciliation risk, before year-end.
Near-term fiscal uncertainty is lower for risk assets, but the House still must approve the measure before Sept. 30.
The vote offers markets a near-term fiscal reprieve, but it only postpones the broader dispute over government spending.
The US Senate has unanimously passed a resolution that would suspend senators' pay during government shutdowns. The…