Fed Rate-Hike Risk Grows as Rate-Cut Cycle Ends
Mixed labor data are pushing inflation and Treasury yields to the foreground, making a 25bp move in September or December the key risk for stocks and Bitcoin.
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Mixed labor data are pushing inflation and Treasury yields to the foreground, making a 25bp move in September or December the key risk for stocks and Bitcoin.
For markets, the risk is a longer period of restrictive financial conditions, with higher borrowing costs weighing on rate-sensitive assets.
Fewer scheduled rate decisions would slow the pace of policy signals markets have built entire trading calendars around, and any move would need broad FOMC buy-in before it lands.
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged, extending the pause as inflation and labor data keep policymakers in a holding pattern ahead of the next move.
A sixth straight pause is the easy headline; the harder read is whether Chair Kevin Warsh uses the press conference to walk back forward guidance and the dot plot that markets have anchored to for…
Softer inflation revived institutional demand, but CoinShares says the policy outlook still limits the case for a BTC break above $80,000.
The headline is the Fed drawing a line; the detail is Warsh declining to rule out support if a stablecoin or crypto run actually materialises.
The line matters less for today's market than for the next stress event: when liquidity tightens, the Fed is now on the record saying crypto stands outside the emergency backstop.
Tucked into the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, the central bank digital currency ban clears Congress with bipartisan backing and lands without the President's signature.
The pick puts a venture capitalist who has spent a decade arguing AI is underhyped at the table where the Fed frames its productivity and labour-market assumptions.
Eli Ben-Sasson argues that lost keys will erode Bitcoin's fixed supply to zero over time and pushes for a clearer monetary policy with an absolute upper bound.
The Reserve Bank wants prohibition-leaning policy as tax officials flag that under a quarter of 645,000 crypto users reported transactions, even as India still hosts roughly 39 million investors…
Eli Ben-Sasson's 4% perpetual issuance pitch reframes a long-taboo question: what replaces the 21M cap when lost keys permanently shrink circulating supply.
Warsh's first public inflation remark as Chair lands with rates markets already pricing two cuts in 2026 and Powell's successor test still ahead of the November FOMC.
The ruling preserves the central bank's statutory independence and freezes a constitutional fight that could have redrawn how the White House pressures the Fed over rates.
The Basel-based institution's Annual Economic Report calls dollar-pegged tokens a threat to monetary sovereignty in emerging markets, and rules out decentralized networks as settlement layer for…
His argument hinges on roughly $1.5T in AI-related debt matching the rise in M2 since 2022, with the BIS, Apollo, and Gromen converging on the same diagnosis.
The chamber cleared a multi-year moratorium on a retail Fed digital dollar, sending the fight to the Senate where central-bank digital currency policy has split both parties.
Greenspan led the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, steering the US economy through the dot-com bust, the 2001 recession, and into the housing build-up that preceded the 2008 crisis.
The shift from sandbox to live banking integration puts South Korea ahead of the US, which has ruled out a retail CBDC, and signals where tokenized money is heading inside regulated rails.