U.S. Payrolls Surge 165K, Reviving December Rate Hike Hopes
The upside surprise and 3.1% wage growth strengthen the case for a December hike, while CPI, PPI and equity stability remain key inputs.
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The upside surprise and 3.1% wage growth strengthen the case for a December hike, while CPI, PPI and equity stability remain key inputs.
The weaker labor market gives the Fed more reason to hold rates, even as elevated inflation complicates its next decision.
Treasury yields are the macro focus after the 10-year rate touched a 24-year high overnight, then pulled back before the September payrolls report.
A shrinking labor force is hiding the weakness; the Fed faces a September decision where both sides of its mandate point in opposite directions.
A second month of labor weakness gives the Federal Reserve more room to hold rates, but high inflation keeps the policy tradeoff unsettled.
The biggest miss since the pre-pandemic era lands one day after Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish pivot, forcing markets to reprice both the path of rates and bitcoin's reaction function.
Europe's full regulatory regime takes hold on July 1, just hours before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls print that will set the dollar-liquidity backdrop for the rest of the quarter.