Bitcoin Reclaims Ground as Soft June CPI Eases Rate-Hike Bets
Headline CPI dropped 0.4% versus 0.1% expected and core was flat, undercutting the hawkish drift that had pushed July hike odds to 42% just a day earlier.
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Headline CPI dropped 0.4% versus 0.1% expected and core was flat, undercutting the hawkish drift that had pushed July hike odds to 42% just a day earlier.
The spot sell that pierced $60K, not the cascade after, is what broke positioning: roughly $470M in BTC sell orders hit Binance in a single minute and ETF outflows are now in a seventh straight week.
A 3% slide in NVIDIA below a $5T market cap pulled crypto and the S&P 500 lower, with rate-hike speculation and ETH Foundation layoffs deepening the risk-off tone.
The shorter statement, absent dot-plot additions, and a rising 2-year yield together tell the real story: the Fed isn't telegraphing cuts anymore, and the bond market is already doing the Fed's job…
Fed funds futures have now priced a 35% chance of a September rate hike — up from 12% a week ago — and the dollar's surge past 100 is putting fresh pressure on risk assets across the board.
Nine of eighteen FOMC projections now point to a year-end hike — the sharpest regime flip since the post-cut consensus, and a stance change that put the committee's median dot on a tightening path…
The flow reversal matters more than any single-day print: bitcoin funds shed $82M and ether funds $29M, with even BlackRock's IBIT in the red, as the Fed's new projections priced out the cuts crypto…
Bond traders are now pricing a 2026 rate hike while stocks decouple from yields — a macro pincer that drains the liquidity bid crypto’s recovery was built on.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes broke the assumption underpinning Bitcoin's 2026 bull case — that the Fed's next serious move was a cut — and the market is now repricing the other direction.
CME FedWatch now prices a 54.1% probability of a December hike versus 1.5% for any cut — the same book that opened the year betting on two-plus cuts — and Bitcoin's macro setup is paying for it.
Bitcoin's recent rally is showing serious fault lines as two converging signals flash red simultaneously: record ETF…
The April core PPI print was the steepest since March 2022, and traders are now pinning the next move to Trump-Xi talks in Beijing and Thursday's Senate Clarity Act hearing.