Bitcoin Drops as Fed Surprise-Hike Risk Builds Before July 29
Futures price only 10bp of tightening against a possible 25bp move, the loosest setup since 1994. Under a chair who rejects forward guidance, that gap is the whole trade.
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Futures price only 10bp of tightening against a possible 25bp move, the loosest setup since 1994. Under a chair who rejects forward guidance, that gap is the whole trade.
Cheaper gasoline gave BTC a bid into a stacked Tuesday: CPI at 8:30 ET and Fed Chair Warsh's House testimony 90 minutes later, where his read of the print will likely move markets more than the…
Headline CPI is set to fall on cheap gas, but Brent above $87 and sticky core inflation already have money markets pricing a 40-50% chance of a July rate hike.
The hawkish dot plot grabbed the headlines; the substance was two quiet signals — AI productivity as a disinflation force and a trimmed-mean inflation rebuild — that point to a structurally looser…
The Treasury Secretary framed the next inflation prints as the war-driven tail end of a cooling cycle, while a productivity-led rate cut path under new Chair Warsh sets the macro stage risk assets…