Every Zipp story tagged #WorldCup, newest first.
Kalshi still leads the prediction-market space at ~59% of open interest, but its share fell from ~62% as Polymarket quietly climbed to ~41%, fueled by capital rotating out of smaller books.
The headline number is volume, but the read is composition: prediction markets are absorbing a year-round sports calendar now, not just isolated tournament weeks.
The $20B World Cup print is five times the 2024 U.S. election cycle and validates Polymarket and Kalshi as the venues where sports and politics meet on-chain.
Roughly two-thirds of Polymarket addresses finished in the red on the tournament contract, but 54 wallets captured nearly 60% of all profit, putting prediction-market concentration in the same league…
The IRS is asserting withholding rights on prize money paid to a non-resident national team, a novel tax claim that complicates how FIFA competitions route payouts to foreign players.
The book looks balanced until you slice by address: 130K of 194K unique wallets ended the World Cup market in the red, with losses and profits both concentrated in a thin top tier.
The rapper-turned-streak-bettor picks the wrong side of a Spain-vs-Argentina final; the loss lands as another chapter in his long-running public wagering saga.
Bloomberg's read is the share is no longer a curiosity trade: a quarter of all World Cup wagering routed through prediction venues reframes the category as mainstream US infrastructure.
The block lands hours before Polymarket's largest event markets settle, with the regulator citing illegal gambling and possible wager manipulation, not the prediction-market model itself.
A celebrity sportsbook slip is not a market signal, but the USDT settlement is a reminder that stablecoins now clear bets that used to move through bank wires.
The market move is modest (a four-point swing on Polymarket) but the political backdrop, with Trump lobbying FIFA directly, is what turns a single match line into a prediction-market story.
A public prediction-market wallet lost 11 of 15 World Cup positions, posting a 26.7% win rate and a single ticket down nearly $5M, the kind of retail drawdown prediction markets rarely surface so…
The error was small (a 3-2 scoreline for a game that hadn't been played), but it lands on a company whose prediction-markets brand is built on 'truth-seeking'.
A roughly 83x monthly jump, peaking at $5.6B on June 22, shows sports catalysts can pull retail capital into event contracts faster than any other category this cycle.
Kalshi alone grew 87% MoM to $31.5B, and the World Cup is pulling the second-highest prediction-market month on record after the 2024 US election cycle.
A freshly created account posted a 93% win rate across 15 World Cup markets in five days, a track record more typical of insider flow than sharp betting.
Two-thirds of winner-market volume sits on teams with a 1% or lower chance of winning, a legacy of trades that never unwound rather than fresh conviction.
A single-account swing across two long-shot soccer outcomes turned roughly $9.5M in stake into an $8.47M one-day PnL on Polymarket's sports markets.
Kalshi's first billion-dollar open interest print arrived the same week Polymarket's World Cup-driven volume tripled, a signal that event-contract retail demand is now flowing through both regulated…
A Super Bowl-style spot during the world's most-watched sporting event is a marketing bet, not a product one, and it lands as US regulators are still circling the category.
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