BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes laid out a sweeping macro thesis at Korea Blockchain Week, arguing that US fiscal policy is quietly engineering a massive credit expansion — one that could ultimately send Bitcoin past $1 million.
Hayes contends that Washington, wary of issuing long-term debt at elevated rates, is using stablecoin legislation — specifically the Genius Act — to manufacture price-inelastic buyers for short-term Treasury bills. In his view, this effectively hands the government tighter control over monetary policy levers.
If that control is fully exercised, Hayes estimates $15.2 trillion in credit could be injected into the system by 2028. He argues the scale of easing would be large enough to shatter Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle, replacing it with a sustained, macro-driven rally toward seven figures.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Genius Act and how does it relate to stablecoins?
The Genius Act is a proposed legislation aimed at regulating stablecoins, which Hayes believes will create price-inelastic buyers for short-term Treasury bills, enhancing government control over monetary policy.
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How does Arthur Hayes believe the credit expansion will affect Bitcoin's price cycle?
Hayes suggests that the anticipated $15.2 trillion credit expansion could disrupt Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle, leading to a sustained rally toward $1 million.
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