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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said on May 5, 2026 at CoinDesk's Consensus that he expects 99% of altcoins to go to zero, but argued that outcome would not signal the end of the crypto industry. Speaking to CoinDesk, Hayes framed the attrition as a feature of capital markets rather than a bug.
Why it matters
Hayes anchored his thesis to a familiar equity-market parallel: roughly 98% of S&P 500 companies listed since 1929 have also wound down, yet the index is the world's most recognized benchmark for capital formation. By that measure, he suggested, most stocks qualify as "shitcoins" too. The 24/7 nature of crypto trading, he added, merely compresses a cycle that plays out over decades in traditional markets into a much tighter window.
Market impact
The framing matters for allocators weighing whether to underweight the altcoin complex as institutional rails expand. Hayes's read is that the long tail of failed tokens is consistent with — not contradictory to — a healthy market for raising capital and funding protocol innovation. For investors, the implication is that survivorship, rather than aggregate token count, is the variable worth tracking.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Arthur Hayes say about altcoins at Consensus 2026?
Speaking to CoinDesk on May 5, 2026, Hayes said 99% of altcoins will likely go to zero but argued that outcome would not end the crypto industry, framing the attrition as a normal feature of capital markets.
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How did Hayes compare altcoins to the stock market?
He noted that roughly 98% of S&P 500 companies listed since 1929 have also wound down, suggesting that most equities are effectively "shitcoins" by the same standard and that crypto's 24/7 cycle simply compresses that attrition.
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What does Hayes's thesis imply for institutional adoption?
His argument is that the long tail of failed tokens is consistent with, not contradictory to, a healthy market for raising capital and funding protocol innovation, so allocators should track survivorship rather than aggregate token count.
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Why does 24/7 trading matter to Hayes's argument?
Hayes said 24/7 crypto trading compresses an equity-market cycle that plays out over decades into a much tighter window, which is why altcoin failures look more frequent but follow the same underlying logic.
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Who is Arthur Hayes and why does his view carry weight?
Hayes is the co-founder of BitMEX, launched in 2014, and has been a long-running commentator on macro liquidity and crypto cycles, giving his framing on industry structure particular resonance with allocators.
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