CoinDesk
Major brokerages have walked back their Federal Reserve rate-cut forecasts one after another, yet Bitcoin is grinding higher anyway. Barclays joined peers on Monday in scrapping its earlier call for at least one cut this year, citing persistently high energy prices tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran. JPMorgan and other global firms have made similar pivots, shifting the consensus from two-plus cuts to a hold-through-2026 stance.
Bitcoin traded around $80,700 on the day, up roughly 2%, brushing the upper boundary of a well-defined rising channel it has traced since its sharp sell-off to nearly $60,000 earlier this year. Spot ETF inflows have continued through the macro repricing, and technical indicators — the 200-day simple moving average sits near $83,430 — are tilting in the bulls' favor.
Why it matters
A higher-for-longer rate outlook would normally drag on risk assets, and the fact that Bitcoin is absorbing the shift without flinching is the actual story. Some analysts argue the asset is increasingly being treated as an inflation hedge, with ETF flows providing a structural bid that doesn't need rate-cut tailwinds. Others remain skeptical, attributing the rally more to broad equity strength than to any genuine repricing of BTC's role in a portfolio. Either way, the disconnect between the macro narrative and price action is widening.
Market impact
Traders are watching $81,500 as immediate resistance, with a CME futures gap near $84,000 flagged as a potential magnet for upside. Ashish Singhal, co-founder of CoinSwitch, pointed to those levels alongside the macro backdrop as the near-term guide. A decisive break above the channel top opens the door to a push toward $100,000; repeated rejection risks a pullback toward $70,000.
Selective altcoin strength is reinforcing the picture. Toncoin has surged roughly 35%, with MORPHO and PENGU up 11% and 9% respectively, while ether, XRP and solana have tracked BTC's modest advance.
Frequently asked questions
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Why are brokerages scrapping Fed rate-cut forecasts?
Barclays, JPMorgan and other major brokerages have walked back earlier calls for at least two rate cuts this year, pointing to persistently high energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran as an inflationary development pushing the Fed toward a hold stance through 2026.
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How is Bitcoin holding up without expected rate cuts?
Bitcoin traded around $80,700 on May 5, up roughly 2%, brushing the upper boundary of a rising channel it has traced since selling off to nearly $60,000 earlier in 2026. Spot ETF inflows have continued even as the rate-cut narrative has faded.
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What are the key technical levels to watch for Bitcoin?
Traders are watching $81,500 as immediate resistance, with a CME futures gap near $84,000 flagged as a potential upside magnet. The 200-day simple moving average sits near $83,430, and a decisive break above the channel top could open a move toward $100,000.
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Is Bitcoin being treated as an inflation hedge now?
Some analysts argue yes — spot ETF inflows through a higher-for-longer regime suggest BTC is gaining structural demand independent of monetary easing. Others remain skeptical, attributing the rally to broad equity strength rather than any genuine repricing of BTC's portfolio role.
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What does the Crypto Fear and Greed Index signal right now?
The index has climbed to 50, right at the neutral midpoint of its range and a level last seen in mid-January. FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich warned that historically, sentiment surges to this zone have given bears room to sell into strength rather than marking runaway bullish conditions.
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