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Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani kept an outperform rating and a $330 price target on Coinbase (COIN) after first-quarter results, implying 71% upside from Thursday's $192.96 close. The call comes despite a quarter that missed on the top and bottom lines: revenue of $1.41 billion fell 5% short of estimates, adjusted EBITDA of $303 million missed by 26%, and the company posted a $394.1 million net loss that included $482 million in unrealized crypto investment losses. Total spot trading volume dropped 25% quarter-over-quarter to $202 billion, retail volume fell 36% to $36 billion, and monthly transacting users slid 10% to 8.2 million.
Why it matters
Bernstein framed the print as a softening-market quarter for the whole industry — total crypto market cap and trading volumes were both down more than 20% quarter-over-quarter — rather than a Coinbase-specific breakdown. Into that backdrop, the firm highlighted revenue traction from lines that didn't exist at scale 12 months ago. Retail derivatives are annualizing above $200 million in revenue, institutional derivatives tied to the Deribit acquisition are annualizing above $250 million, and prediction markets crossed a $100 million annualized run rate in March — what Bernstein called one of the fastest-growing product launches in Coinbase's history. The firm also pointed to a vertically integrated stack built around USDC, the Base Layer 2, payments APIs, and the x402 protocol for agentic commerce, with Base-based stablecoin transaction volume up tenfold year-over-year and more than 90% of agentic stablecoin volume running on Base during the quarter.
Market impact
Coinbase also hit an all-time high in crypto trading market share during the quarter, gains spanning both spot and derivatives. Bernstein flagged two forward catalysts the market may be underweighting: expected progress on the Clarity Act and a more formal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement hinted at by White House crypto officials. The stock was down 2.7% in pre-market trading on Friday, and Coinbase had separately resumed order matching after suspending it for several hours during an AWS-related disruption.
Frequently asked questions
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What is Bernstein's price target and rating on Coinbase after Q1?
Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, maintained an outperform rating and a $330 price target on Coinbase (COIN) after the company's first-quarter results, implying 71% upside from Thursday's $192.96 close.
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How did Coinbase's first-quarter results come in versus expectations?
Revenue of $1.41 billion missed estimates by 5%, adjusted EBITDA of $303 million missed by 26%, and the company posted a $394.1 million net loss that included $482 million in unrealized losses on its crypto investment portfolio.
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What new revenue lines did Bernstein highlight on Coinbase?
Bernstein pointed to retail derivatives annualizing above $200 million in revenue, institutional derivatives tied to the Deribit acquisition annualizing above $250 million, and prediction markets crossing a $100 million annualized run rate in March.
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How is the USDC and Base strategy contributing to Coinbase?
Base-based stablecoin transaction volume grew tenfold year-over-year, with more than 90% of agentic stablecoin transaction volume during the quarter running on Base. Bernstein described the setup as a vertically integrated stack around USDC, Base, payments APIs, and the x402 protocol.
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What catalysts did Bernstein flag for Coinbase going forward?
Bernstein said the market may be underestimating expected progress on the Clarity Act and a more formal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement hinted at by White House crypto officials.
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