CoinDesk
The $60,000 bitcoin put is now the single largest options position on the board, with $1.17 billion in notional open interest, overtaking the previously dominant $70,000 and $72,000 call strikes as traders reposition for a defensive August. Friday's 08:00 UTC expiry settled $10 billion of BTC and ETH options, and the unwind was concentrated in the bullish bets that had been stacked ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting. The $70,000 call has fallen to $943 million in open interest and the $72,000 call to $888 million, both still large but now well behind the protective put.
Why it matters
Until yesterday, the $70,000 and $72,000 calls had been the most popular strikes on the board, each carrying roughly $2.5 billion in notional open interest. That positioning was built around a bullish read on the Fed decision, with traders betting price would push as high as $72,000 once the rate path was clearer. The bet did not pay, and Friday's expiry appears to have catalysed the unwind. The cleanest read on what happens next is in the put: $1.17 billion of notional protection now sits below spot, a structural signal that hedgers are no longer treating $60,000 as a near-term floor.
Market impact
Seasonality is reinforcing the options signal. Since 2013, July has delivered a median return of 8.61% for bitcoin, and the print this month is running 8.9%, almost exactly the historical median. But a positive July has historically been followed by a negative August, with a median return of -7.51%. The August figure uses the median rather than the mean to avoid distortion from a handful of extreme months, which makes it a cleaner read on the typical outcome. With spot hovering near $63,000, a -7.51% drawdown from here would imply a move toward the high $58,000s, close to the strike that now carries the largest open interest on the options board.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the largest bitcoin options position right now?
The $60,000 put is now the single largest strike on the board with $1.17 billion in notional open interest, ahead of the previously dominant $70,000 and $72,000 calls.
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Why did the bullish $70,000 and $72,000 calls lose their lead?
Those strikes had been the most popular bets ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting, but the bullish thesis did not pay and Friday's 08:00 UTC expiry, which settled $10 billion of BTC and ETH options, appears to have catalysed the unwind.
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How much open interest do the $70K and $72K calls still carry?
The $70,000 call has fallen to $943 million in notional open interest and the $72,000 call to $888 million, both still large but well behind the protective $60,000 put.
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What does August seasonality suggest for bitcoin?
Since 2013, a positive July for bitcoin has historically been followed by a negative August with a median return of -7.51%, a figure that uses the median to avoid distortion from a handful of extreme months.
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Where could BTC trade if August matches the historical median drawdown?
With bitcoin near $63,000, the median August return of -7.51% would imply a move toward the high $58,000s, very close to the $60,000 strike that now carries the largest options open interest.
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