CoinDesk
A backtest by Gregory Mall of Lionsoul Global put 2.5% and 10% spot Bitcoin weights into a global 60/40 portfolio, rebalanced monthly from January 2021 to March 2026. A rules-based sleeve also switched between Bitcoin and cash on trend signals.
Both approaches beat plain 60/40 in bull regimes, while the trend sleeve kept losses shallower in bear markets and gave up some upside. Higher spot weights brought more volatility and deeper drawdowns, and direct Bitcoin exposure struggled to justify that risk in sideways markets.
For allocators, the result shifts the question from whether to own Bitcoin to how to hold it through a cycle. The analysis flags post-ETF flows, the 2024 halving and regulatory clarity as forces shaping future outcomes, but makes no prediction about the next cycle.
Frequently asked questions
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How was the Bitcoin portfolio rebalanced in the test?
The 60/40 portfolio used monthly rebalancing, and the test covered January 2021 through March 2026.
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What did the rules-based Bitcoin sleeve do?
It switched between Bitcoin and cash on trend signals. It kept losses shallower in bear markets but gave up some upside.
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How did direct Bitcoin exposure behave in sideways markets?
It added volatility and deeper drawdowns, and struggled to justify that risk in sideways markets.
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Why is implementation as important as Bitcoin's portfolio weight?
The backtest links higher spot weights to more volatility and deeper drawdowns, so how Bitcoin is held is part of the allocation decision.
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Which broader forces could shape future Bitcoin allocation results?
The analysis flags post-ETF flows, the 2024 halving and regulatory clarity as forces shaping future outcomes. It makes no prediction about the next cycle.
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