CoinDesk
Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald told clients on Tuesday that bitcoin is likely in the late stages of its current bear cycle, with historical patterns pointing to a bottom around late October. As of June 10, BTC was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down roughly 51%, trading near $59,500.
Across the three prior cycles, bitcoin bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, which would put a potential floor in late October if the pattern repeats. Analysts led by Gareth Gacetta cautioned that cycle averages are not precise timing tools, but said crypto's reflexive nature means historical patterns can become self-reinforcing.
Why it matters
Cantor's call is less about the date and more about the filter it applies to the next leg up. The bank argued that usage alone does not translate into token value; the durable winners will be networks that convert activity into real cash flow or monetary premium. Bitcoin stays the benchmark monetary asset, Ethereum the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance, and Hyperliquid the cleanest current example of fee-driven token economics through HYPE buybacks and burns.
Solana, Sui, XRP and Zcash each carry differentiated strengths, Cantor said, but still have to prove ecosystem growth can become durable token demand. Ether and most majors have underperformed BTC during the drawdown, with DeFi and tokenization showing relative resilience.
Market impact
A late-October bottom call from a Wall Street desk is itself a positioning event: allocators who have been waiting for a clear capitulation window now have a public framework to anchor against. Cantor also initiated coverage on digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings and price targets of $7.90 and $0.90, framing DATs as evolving beyond passive holders into active operators that bridge TradFi and crypto. Watch ETF flows, the October tape, and how quickly the value-accrual thesis separates winners from laggards when risk appetite returns.
Frequently asked questions
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When does Cantor think the bitcoin bear market will bottom?
Cantor's analysts map the current drawdown against three prior BTC cycles, where bitcoin bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking. With BTC 252 days past its 2025 peak, the bank pointed to a potential floor around late October if the historical pattern repeats.
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Why is the late-October bottom call significant?
A Wall Street desk publishing a specific bottom window is itself a positioning event. Allocators waiting for a clear capitulation signal now have a public framework to anchor against, which can shape flows into ETFs and DAT names in the months ahead.
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Which networks does Cantor view as durable winners?
Cantor held up bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset, Ethereum as the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance, and Hyperliquid as the cleanest example of fee-driven token economics through HYPE buybacks and burns.
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What did Cantor say about Solana, Sui, XRP and Zcash?
Cantor said each of those networks carries differentiated strengths but still has to prove that ecosystem growth can translate into durable token demand, rather than just onchain activity.
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Why did Cantor highlight digital asset treasury companies?
The bank framed DATs as evolving beyond passive crypto holders into active operators that generate yield, build infrastructure and bridge TradFi and crypto. It initiated coverage on Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings and price targets of $7.90 and $0.90.
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