Bitcoin Eyes $85K as ETF Inflows Hit $1.69B Streak

Bitcoin is trading near $81,000 and has cleared two onchain cost-basis levels — the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79,100 — putting the majority of active market participants back in profit for the first time since the late-2025 drawdown. Glassnode's weekly onchain report now flags the Active Realized Price at $85,200 as the next structural ceiling, the threshold where overhead selling pressure is likely to intensify.

Spot bitcoin ETFs reinforced the picture on Wednesday, extending their inflow streak to five consecutive days and bringing the five-day total to $1.69 billion — the longest such run since July 2025. The 30-day moving average of ETF net flows has also turned firmly positive after an extended period of outflows throughout the late-2025 to early-2026 drawdown.

Why it matters

The combination of cleared cost-basis levels, a sustained ETF bid, and a friendlier macro backdrop has shifted the market's centre of gravity. Trading above the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is historically associated with improving sentiment and reduced selling pressure, because most active holders are no longer underwater. Glassnode's 30-day moving average of net realized profit and loss has flipped positive at 0.003% of market capitalization, recovering from a trough of -0.027% in mid-February.

Macro has also tilted supportive. Hopes of a formal U.S.-Iran peace deal — a reported 14-point framework that includes a halt to Iranian nuclear enrichment and the removal of Strait of Hormuz shipping blockades — have softened an energy-driven inflation premium that weighed on risk assets for months.

Market impact

But the recovery is not yet clean. Perpetual futures funding rates remain predominantly negative even as prices have recovered more than 26% from February lows, a dynamic Glassnode characterized as the market climbing a wall of worry. A short gamma cluster of nearly $2 billion sits near the $82,000 strike, forcing dealer hedging flows to amplify moves in either direction as spot trades within that zone.