CryptoSlate
Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 in the second quarter, down from 0.58 in Q4 2025, according to a joint Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode report covering data through June 30. The link with the Nasdaq sat at 0.21, while correlation with gold climbed to 0.57 and with silver to 0.63, the first sustained re-coupling with metals since the AI-equity trade began dominating crypto's price action two years ago.
The report, published as Brent crude hovered near $96 a barrel on July 24, frames the shift as a change in which macro channel Bitcoin answers to. A firmer dollar and a hawkish Fed pulled both Bitcoin and gold down in Q2, a shared real-rate sensitivity that breaks the old assumption that weakness in technology shares automatically rotates into crypto.
Why it matters
The decoupling cuts both ways. In a bull-case AI selloff, where investors reject stretched valuations and Treasury yields fall, Bitcoin can rise alongside gold and silver while staying detached from the Nasdaq. In a bear-case selloff driven by oil, tariffs and AI-infrastructure demand keeping inflation sticky, yields and the dollar strengthen, and Bitcoin falls with the metals it now correlates with. New York Fed President John Williams tied elevated inflation to tariffs, Middle East-driven energy costs, and demand from technology investment in semiconductors and power transformers. The Fed's July Monetary Policy Report listed PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4% over the twelve months through May, with the funds rate held at 3.50% to 3.75% since the start of the year.
Market impact
The EIA's July 7 base case put Brent averaging $74 a barrel in Q3. With spot Brent around $96 and the 10-year Treasury yield touching 4.713% on July 24, the bear-case channel is the one currently priced. The Q3 test is whether oil returns toward the EIA forecast, supporting the bull case, or stays above the $90 caution threshold, where higher energy costs lift yields and pressure Bitcoin. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted seven straight days of net inflows through July 22 totaling nearly $1 billion, before bleeding $225 million on July 23.
Frequently asked questions
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How correlated is Bitcoin with the S&P 500 right now?
Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 in Q2 2026, down from 0.58 in Q4 2025, according to a joint Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode report covering data through June 30.
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Why is Bitcoin's correlation with gold rising?
The report frames the shift as a shared sensitivity to real rates and the dollar. A firmer dollar and a hawkish Fed pulled both Bitcoin and gold down in Q2, lifting their correlation to 0.57.
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What oil price level matters for Bitcoin in Q3?
The EIA's July 7 base case put Brent averaging $74 a barrel in Q3. A return toward $74 supports the bull case for Bitcoin, while sustained prices above the $90 caution threshold keep the bear case alive.
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How are spot Bitcoin ETF flows trending?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted seven straight days of net inflows through July 22 totaling nearly $1 billion, before bleeding $225 million on July 23. The run confirms demand is stabilizing but is too short to confirm an AI-to-crypto rotation.
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What macro events land inside the Q3 test window?
The Fed meets July 28-29, Microsoft and Meta report earnings July 29, and Amazon reports July 30, all inside the quarter that decides whether the AI-stock selloff lowers or raises the cost of money.
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