CryptoSlate
Bitcoin is holding above $78,000 even as Brent crude breached $100 for the first time since July 24, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.81%, and markets priced a 60.4% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike at next week's meeting. The flagship cryptocurrency traded around $78,451 at press time, absorbing a roughly 25% advance in Brent since early August that has come alongside renewed inflation concerns after attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure raised fresh questions about flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said the move has sharpened focus on the economic, political and social consequences of higher US gasoline prices and accompanying bond yield gains, a combination that has historically been difficult for Bitcoin.
Why it matters
Talos, in a research note shared with CryptoSlate, found that Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen to 0.56, the highest since 2020, while correlations with the Nasdaq 100 and the US dollar have fallen close to zero. That pattern previously appeared during regimes where scarce monetary assets, not technology stocks, drove price behavior, with sovereign debt concerns, currency purchasing power and real interest rates doing the heavy lifting. The complication this time is that real yields remain elevated, limiting the Fed's ability to respond to economic weakness with aggressive easing, and Talos identified higher rates as one of the main threats to the emerging gold-like trading pattern.
The derivatives market is amplifying that sensitivity. Bitcoin fell 2.32% in the 30 minutes after the Sept. 4 payrolls release, when the US economy added 162,000 jobs against expectations for 56,000, a move about six times the asset's typical 30-minute reaction around payroll reports. Open interest dropped 3% during the same window and $119 million of longs were liquidated against $24 million of shorts, evidence that leveraged positioning can amplify a macro catalyst.
Market impact
Friday's CPI release at 8:30 a.m.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why is Bitcoin's $78,000 level important right now?
Bitcoin has held above $78,000 while absorbing Brent above $100, a 10-year Treasury yield near 4.81%, and rising Fed hike expectations. The level is now the line leveraged long positions are defending into Friday's CPI release.
-
How has Bitcoin's correlation with gold changed?
According to Talos, Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold rose to 0.56, the highest since 2020, while correlations with the Nasdaq 100 and the US dollar fell close to zero, pointing to a scarce-monetary-asset trading pattern rather than a tech-stock one.
-
What did the September 4 payrolls report reveal about Bitcoin's macro sensitivity?
Bitcoin fell 2.32% in the 30 minutes after the report showed 162,000 jobs added versus 56,000 expected, about six times its typical 30-minute reaction. Open interest dropped 3% as $119 million of longs were liquidated against $24 million of shorts.
-
What is the risk to Bitcoin from Friday's CPI release?
Core inflation is expected to ease to 2.4% annually from 2.5% in July, but Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said an upside surprise could push him to back another rate hike. Talos found core CPI releases have driven Bitcoin moves about 1.8 times larger than ordinary 30-minute windows since January 2025.
-
How could Japanese Treasury selling pressure Bitcoin?
Bitwise Europe's André Dragosch argues renewed Chinese oil demand could lift Japan's import bill, pressure the yen and force Japanese investors to trim US Treasury holdings to stabilize the currency, all of which feeds into the higher yields Bitcoin's gold-correlation trade cannot easily absorb.
WatcherGuru
CoinTelegraph
Crypto Capital Venture
Crypto News