After 524 days in office, Bitcoin's return under President Trump is down 41.1%, nearly identical to the 43.8% drawdown recorded at the same point under President Biden, according to cycle data shared by Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse. The comparison cuts against the political narrative around BTC: the first two presidential windows (Obama's second term and Trump's first term) delivered strong gains, while Biden's term and Trump's current term have been the two weakest stretches on a return basis.
Why it matters
The data is a useful corrective to anyone anchoring BTC's price action to whoever sits in the Oval Office. Under Obama's second term and Trump's first term, Bitcoin rallied aggressively; under Biden and the current Trump term, returns have lagged. Yet the macro backdrop shifted between those pairs too, with inflation and unemployment concerns replacing the post-pandemic liquidity tailwind that drove the earlier cycle. Cowen's read is that politics warps perception more than it drives the chart, and that the BTC drawdown under both Biden and the current Trump term is best explained by macro, not by the occupant of the White House.
Market impact
The dollar index is layering onto the same read. The DXY topped in January 2025, bottomed into early 2026, and is now pushing higher, a path that mirrors the January 2017 top and early-2018 bottom in Trump's first term. Cowen sees the dollar working back toward the 105-106 area, which would keep a macro headwind in place for risk assets into the second half. If the 2017-2018 analogue holds, BTC would bottom later this year and transition into the next bull leg into 2027.
Frequently asked questions
-
How does Bitcoin's return under Trump compare to Biden after the same number of days?
After 524 days in office, Bitcoin was down 41.1% under Trump versus 43.8% under Biden at the same point, a near-identical drawdown despite very different political environments.
-
Which US presidents oversaw the strongest Bitcoin returns?
Obama's second term and Trump's first term were the two strongest BTC windows on a return basis, while Biden's term and Trump's current term have been the weakest.
-
Why does Bitcoin's return differ between presidential terms?
The data suggests macro factors (inflation, unemployment, liquidity conditions) drive the chart more than the occupant of the White House. Returns weakened once inflation and labor-market concerns replaced the post-pandemic liquidity tailwind.
-
How does the dollar's path under Trump's second term compare to his first?
The DXY topped in January 2025 and bottomed in early 2026, mirroring the January 2017 top and early-2018 bottom from Trump's first term, with a similar push higher since.
-
What would a 2017-2018 analogue imply for Bitcoin later this year?
If the pattern holds, Bitcoin would bottom later in 2026 and transition into the next bull leg into 2027, though the call depends on the dollar not breaking meaningfully above the 105-106 area.
CryptoSlate
Lookonchain
WuBlockchain
Altcoin Daily
Whale Alert
CoinTelegraph
CoinDesk