Bitcoin has entered the third and final stage of the current bear market, according to a long-form thesis published this week by Into the Cryptoverse. The framework divides the downturn into three roughly four-month phases anchored to shifts in crowd psychology rather than chart pattern: stage one (October 2025 to February 2026) drew down from the high with only a minority recognising the regime change; stage two (February to June 2026) covered the break of that initial low, with roughly half of investors finally conceding a bear market had begun; stage three is now expected to run from June through October 2026.
The thesis leans on investor belief shifts as the leading indicator. Recent X polls cited in the video reportedly show roughly 60-65% of respondents leaning bearish — below the 75-80% threshold the analyst treats as a contrarian capitulation signal. Until that share stretches higher, the framework treats the cycle as incomplete.
Why it matters
The three-stage model is psychology-first, not chart-first. Its central claim is that bear markets end when everyone already believes in them, not when the price has finished falling — a setup that historically punishes late converts who panic sell mid-stage-three and then carry bearish positioning into the next recovery. The analyst notes the current cycle has already run eight months from the October 2025 high without a clean structural bottom, framing that duration as evidence the market is late-stage rather than mid-cycle.
Market impact
The piece points to historical analogues to size the remaining drawdown. The 2014 cycle saw roughly 15% drop from the February low to the April low, then another 18% into the October bottom — far deeper than the shallow sweep seen in 2018. The base case is a June low near current prices around $60K that holds as support, prints a short-term higher low, and sets up a July rally. A deeper drop now would compress what October still has to deliver. Either outcome keeps the analyst's October window as the projected end of the bear market.
Frequently asked questions
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What are the three stages of the Bitcoin bear market according to Into the Cryptoverse?
Stage one runs October 2025 to February 2026, when only a minority recognise the bear market. Stage two runs February to June 2026, when the prior low breaks and roughly half of investors concede. Stage three runs June to October 2026 and ends when the majority finally believes.
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Why does the framework focus on investor psychology instead of chart patterns?
The thesis argues crowd belief is the leading indicator. Bear markets end when everyone already believes in them, not when the price finishes falling — making late-converts the ones who get punished first by holding too long, then by staying bearish into the next recovery.
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What poll threshold signals a bear market bottom in this framework?
The analyst treats 75-80% bearish sentiment on X polls as the contrarian capitulation signal that has historically marked cycle bottoms. Current polls sit at roughly 60-65%, which the framework treats as incomplete rather than bottomed.
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How deep could the remaining drawdown go based on historical analogues?
The 2014 cycle saw a 15% drop from the February low to the April low, then another 18% into the October bottom — far deeper than the shallow sweep seen in 2018. The base case is a June low near $60K that holds and prints a higher low.
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When does the analyst expect the current bear market to end?
The October 2026 window is the projected end of stage three, framed as the point at which the majority of investors finally believe in the bear market — which the framework argues is historically when bear markets end.
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