Every Zipp story tagged #BearMarket, newest first.
60-day realized vol is hovering at 1.47% near a level Bitcoin has rarely compressed below, and the channel sees one more drawdown as the trigger that resets on-chain indicators and likely marks the…
Below the 200-week MA, BTC sits in a band it has occupied only 8% of its history, historically the zone where the strongest forward returns have followed.
August and September average double-digit losses in midterm years, and 2026's apathetic top and current social-risk levels mirror 2018's structure to a fault.
The cohort shift offers a constructive cycle signal, but its value depends on persistence and confirmation from Bitcoin price action.
The key market question is where that capital gets allocated, not whether investors are still searching.
The Binance founder's split read is the framing a market sitting on its year lows wants to hear: the macro tape is heavy, but the bid has not left the room.
History says the Q3 window of weakness arrives next. The monthly-return tape and the 10-year yield already suggest August and September carry the asymmetric downside risk.
The call is conditional on prior cycle depth and duration, not a fresh forecast; BTC is already off nearly 50% from October's $126K high, putting the current drawdown in the same bracket as past…
The structural fractal keeps lining up with the 2018 drawdown, but liquidity and business-cycle signals point to a shorter cycle and a market bottom likely landing before year-end.
Fading downside momentum sets up a potential run to $200K-$250K, per the Real Vision chief crypto analyst, framing the rest of the cycle as a structural recovery rather than a relief bounce.
An anonymous December 2023 post timing the October 2025 top to the day now lines up with a separate model pointing to a Q4 2026 bottom, both feeding the same cycle structure.
The Bull Score Index is still in bearish territory despite the July bounce, so the firm reads the move as cyclical mean-reversion within a downtrend, not a structural bottom.
The desk's read is that capitulation is underway but the bid hasn't returned, with ETF outflows and a fading AI rotation leaving crypto exposed to a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rates.
With BTC sitting under the True Mean, 200-day, 128-day and short-term holder cost basis at once, the historical 5-10% undershoot of onchain valuation metrics points to a cycle low near $45,000.
The 200-week moving average has flipped from support into resistance in every prior bear market, and BTC is now following the same path 2018 and 2022 traced on the way to a cycle bottom.
Eight months after Bitcoin topped, declining volumes, venture pullback and sector-wide cuts point to a late-stage cycle, historically one of the strongest windows to position for the next run.
Jiang Zhuoer's call rests on Strategy's mNAV sitting at 0.72, near the level that marked the last cycle's turn, and on a four-year cycle model whose prior low preceded bitcoin's own bottom by about…
The print beats every prior bear-market bottom, yet long-term holders have continued to accumulate to a fresh all-time high of 14.8M coins, roughly 75% of supply.
The call lands on a 4-year cycle model with MSTR mNAV as the anchor. If BTC has already made a 20-month low, the predicted Oct-Dec 2026 floor sits well below current price action.
He frames the call around Strategy's mNAV sitting at 0.72, close to the May 2022 low, and argues BTC typically bottoms roughly six months after MSTR's multiple does.
Benjamin Cowen
Altcoin Daily
CoinTelegraph
CZ Binance
WuBlockchain
Crypto News
TheBlock
CoinDesk