Every Zipp story tagged #BearMarket, newest first.
At comparable points in prior cycles, Bitcoin was more than twice as deep in drawdown and weeks from its lows.
The technical breakout revives the case that Bitcoin’s bear-market low is in, with BTC already up 29% in 35 days.
The technical milestone strengthens the case that Bitcoin’s bear-market low is behind it, though historical signals are not guarantees.
Fidelity points investors beyond August's price gains to cycle timing, policy, institutional adoption and on-chain activity as the next signals to watch.
Prior weekly breaks above the 50-week average marked bull-market starts, but a pause alone does not confirm rejection.
The 50-week moving average is the key cycle boundary, with two weekly closes below it historically marking the end of Bitcoin bull markets.
Prior cycles split between first-test rejections and sustained breaks, making the 50-week level a key divider between a relief rally and a durable trend change.
60-day realized vol is hovering at 1.47% near a level Bitcoin has rarely compressed below, and the channel sees one more drawdown as the trigger that resets on-chain indicators and likely marks the…
Below the 200-week MA, BTC sits in a band it has occupied only 8% of its history, historically the zone where the strongest forward returns have followed.
August and September average double-digit losses in midterm years, and 2026's apathetic top and current social-risk levels mirror 2018's structure to a fault.
The cohort shift offers a constructive cycle signal, but its value depends on persistence and confirmation from Bitcoin price action.
The key market question is where that capital gets allocated, not whether investors are still searching.
The Binance founder's split read is the framing a market sitting on its year lows wants to hear: the macro tape is heavy, but the bid has not left the room.
History says the Q3 window of weakness arrives next. The monthly-return tape and the 10-year yield already suggest August and September carry the asymmetric downside risk.
The call is conditional on prior cycle depth and duration, not a fresh forecast; BTC is already off nearly 50% from October's $126K high, putting the current drawdown in the same bracket as past…
The structural fractal keeps lining up with the 2018 drawdown, but liquidity and business-cycle signals point to a shorter cycle and a market bottom likely landing before year-end.
Fading downside momentum sets up a potential run to $200K-$250K, per the Real Vision chief crypto analyst, framing the rest of the cycle as a structural recovery rather than a relief bounce.
An anonymous December 2023 post timing the October 2025 top to the day now lines up with a separate model pointing to a Q4 2026 bottom, both feeding the same cycle structure.
The Bull Score Index is still in bearish territory despite the July bounce, so the firm reads the move as cyclical mean-reversion within a downtrend, not a structural bottom.
The desk's read is that capitulation is underway but the bid hasn't returned, with ETF outflows and a fading AI rotation leaving crypto exposed to a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rates.
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Benjamin Cowen
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