Bitcoin Bear Market Has 3 Months Left, Models Target Q4 2026 Bottom
An anonymous December 2023 post timing the October 2025 top to the day now lines up with a separate model pointing to a Q4 2026 bottom, both feeding the same cycle structure.
Every Zipp story tagged #BearMarket, newest first.
An anonymous December 2023 post timing the October 2025 top to the day now lines up with a separate model pointing to a Q4 2026 bottom, both feeding the same cycle structure.
The Bull Score Index is still in bearish territory despite the July bounce, so the firm reads the move as cyclical mean-reversion within a downtrend, not a structural bottom.
The desk's read is that capitulation is underway but the bid hasn't returned, with ETF outflows and a fading AI rotation leaving crypto exposed to a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rates.
With BTC sitting under the True Mean, 200-day, 128-day and short-term holder cost basis at once, the historical 5-10% undershoot of onchain valuation metrics points to a cycle low near $45,000.
The 200-week moving average has flipped from support into resistance in every prior bear market, and BTC is now following the same path 2018 and 2022 traced on the way to a cycle bottom.
Eight months after Bitcoin topped, declining volumes, venture pullback and sector-wide cuts point to a late-stage cycle, historically one of the strongest windows to position for the next run.
Jiang Zhuoer's call rests on Strategy's mNAV sitting at 0.72, near the level that marked the last cycle's turn, and on a four-year cycle model whose prior low preceded bitcoin's own bottom by about…
The print beats every prior bear-market bottom, yet long-term holders have continued to accumulate to a fresh all-time high of 14.8M coins, roughly 75% of supply.
The call lands on a 4-year cycle model with MSTR mNAV as the anchor. If BTC has already made a 20-month low, the predicted Oct-Dec 2026 floor sits well below current price action.
He frames the call around Strategy's mNAV sitting at 0.72, close to the May 2022 low, and argues BTC typically bottoms roughly six months after MSTR's multiple does.
BTC has touched a level that marked the prior four cycle bottoms, and the call to act on it is coming from promotional channels, not registered advisers.
K33 analysts say a record share of BTC supply is now sitting in long-term holder wallets, a pattern the firm argues has…
The worst mistake a Bitcoin holder can make isn't buying the top — it's selling and never buying back. After enough…
A widely followed Bitcoin market analyst argues that time, not price, is the better guide for when the current bear…
Macro position trader Jason Pizzino told the Altcoin Daily channel he expects the next downturn to rival 2008 in…
Bitcoin trades near $64,000 — but a Fibonacci pattern that has held since the asset's earliest days points to a 61.8%…
Material Indicators' 14-week RSI threshold at 41.5 has separated bull and bear phases across three cycles; BTC is still trading under it, with the next downside trigger at 31.89.
The price reset unwinds the entire Alonzo-era speculative premium, but the more revealing signal is the scale of redistribution from large holders — that's a structural shift, not routine churn.
A widely-shared video argues BTC just printed the same higher-low-into-May pattern as 2018, with the cycle's final 50% capitulation still missing — and Q4 in its sights.
Only $58M was raised across IEOs, ICOs, and IDOs last quarter, an 85% QoQ drop, with just 37 public sales — the lowest tally since the 2020 cycle trough.