CoinDesk
Bitcoin is on track for its first July-to-September winning streak since 2012. The asset rose 4.8% in July and 25.2% in August, and September is trading 10.9% higher at $86,140, according to CoinDesk data.
The only prior instance of this pattern came in 2012, when bitcoin gained 41.0%, 6.4% and 24.4% across those three months. October then broke the streak with a 9.7% decline that bottomed at $10.17 on Oct. 26. From that low, bitcoin launched a 165-day run to $230 by April 2013, a gain of more than 2,000%.
Why it matters
The setup is noteworthy for its rarity and its alignment with bitcoin's broader four-year market cycle. Some cycle models point to a potentially bullish phase beginning around October or November, though historical patterns are approximate rather than fixed calendar rules.
The sample size is a genuine limitation. Bitcoin has traded since at least late 2010, and this pattern has appeared only once in that span, so the 2012 precedent cannot settle what happens next on its own.
Market impact
The magnitude of any repeat rally is likely to be far smaller than in bitcoin's early years. In 2012, bitcoin was a thinly traded asset worth barely $10, one a small number of buyers could move. Today it sits in a multi-trillion-dollar market with substantial institutional participation, deep spot and derivatives liquidity across dozens of venues, and a broad range of options, futures and basis-trade strategies.
That depth makes a percentage move of 2012 scale much harder to achieve. What traders will watch is whether October delivers the historical red month, and whether any dip draws the kind of accumulation that preceded the 2013 breakout.
Frequently asked questions
-
When did bitcoin last post a July-to-September winning streak?
The only prior instance was in 2012, when bitcoin gained 41.0% in July, 6.4% in August and 24.4% in September. No year since has produced a winning streak across all three months.
-
What happened after bitcoin's 2012 three-month streak?
October 2012 broke the streak with a 9.7% decline that bottomed at $10.17 on Oct. 26. From that low, bitcoin ran for 165 days to $230 by April 2013, a gain of more than 2,000%.
-
How much is bitcoin up in September 2025?
September is trading 10.9% higher at $86,140, following gains of 4.8% in July and 25.2% in August, per CoinDesk data.
-
Could bitcoin repeat a 2,000% rally from here?
A move of that magnitude is considered far less likely today. In 2012 bitcoin was a thinly traded asset worth about $10, while it now trades in a multi-trillion-dollar market with deep institutional liquidity across spot, options, futures and basis strategies.
-
Does the three-month streak predict an October dip?
The historical sample is too small to draw a conclusion: the pattern has appeared only once since bitcoin began trading in late 2010. The setup is notable mainly for its rarity and its overlap with bitcoin's four-year market cycle, which some models frame as bullish from around October or November.
CoinTelegraph
Lookonchain
CryptoSlate
Crypto News
Glassnode
Crypto Rank News
WatcherGuru