Public token sales collapse 95% from peak as Q2 raises just $40M
The cycle-peak collapse tells the story by itself: 95% fewer dollars raised and 90% fewer deals completed versus the prior high, the weakest quarter in four years.
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The cycle-peak collapse tells the story by itself: 95% fewer dollars raised and 90% fewer deals completed versus the prior high, the weakest quarter in four years.
Bitcoin has just touched its 50-month moving average for the fourth time in its history, and each prior touch has…
The combined on-chain risk metric sits below 0.2, a band Bitcoin has historically spent little time in — and every prior visit marked a multi-month cycle low that anchored the next bull run.
Realized price is the aggregate acquisition cost across the network — historically every BTC bear market has dipped below it, and the current ~$54K level lines up with midterm-year cycle timing.
Into the Cryptoverse flags a chart signal that has timed every prior BTC market bottom: the supply-in-profit and supply-in-loss lines have crossed, putting the cycle low on the radar inside a roughly…
Rafael anchors the call in two on-chain valuation bands — CVDD and Realized Price — with a deeper capitulation floor at $35K-$40K only if the cycle breaks historical pattern.
A two-week Keltner lower-band re-test has marked every prior Bitcoin bottom, but the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $40K has done the same — and the two signals currently disagree by tens of…
The same long-term trendline that caught every prior Bitcoin bottom is now being tested mid-June — historically the calendar window where midterm-year lows have formed.
Total altcoin market cap is down 43% from peak, ETH is off 59% and ADA is off 92% — the same macro signature as December 2019, when S&P 500 was in price discovery and Dogecoin was about to run…
BTC is down roughly $10K in weeks and got rejected precisely at the 200-day moving average — the same level that marked the top in 2018 and 2022, suggesting the seasonal drawdown still has weeks to…
The retest of the 2021 all-time high range doubles as a neckline throwback on a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders — and the 200-week moving average is sitting right under it.
Both camps point at the same chart and see different realities: BTC printed higher highs, altcoins did not, and the divergence tracks a record-breaking liquidity contraction rather than a verdict on…
Historical cycles show counter-trend rallies running 19–25 weeks before the next low — current rally is at 14, leaving June as the likely pivot, with Q4 the harder test.
The 2018 parallel is tight: February low, April higher low, May rally into the 200-day — but every price point is roughly 10x where it was then, which changes what "cheap" actually means this cycle.