CryptoSlate
Bitcoin faces potential selling pressure near $82,500, where Bitfinex estimates investors accumulated approximately 874,000 BTC. The cryptocurrency fell to $79,370 after losing its $81,300 support level, then recovered to $80,102. A rally toward the $81,000-$82,500 range could bring holders back to market near their purchase prices.
Why it matters
The 874,000 BTC estimate represents coins associated with a price range, not confirmed sell orders. Still, even a fraction of those holdings returning to the market could complicate a recovery if fresh demand remains limited. Bitfinex said the former $81,300 support level became resistance after Bitcoin closed below it on Oct. 22, 23 and 24.
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand has not yet provided a broad offset. US funds recorded $110.3 million in net inflows on Oct. 26, entirely driven by BlackRock’s IBIT, while the other listed funds posted zero net flows. That followed two withdrawal sessions totaling $773.5 million, leaving the three-session period with approximately $663 million in net outflows.
Market impact
Bitcoin futures open interest rose from 645,411 BTC on Oct. 21 to 669,253 BTC on Oct. 25 while prices declined. The increase in outstanding positions could amplify volatility if a sharp move triggers liquidations. Bitfinex identified liquidation concentrations around $82,300 to $83,000, creating the potential for a short squeeze if buyers clear resistance.
Downside support sits between $77,500 and $80,000, where about 739,000 BTC was accumulated. A deeper decline would put the $77,765 True Market Mean in focus. The Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 decision is the immediate macro catalyst. Markets assigned a 9.4% probability to an October rate increase and a 72.1% probability to a December increase as of Oct. 25. Stronger inflation could reinforce rate-hike expectations, while softer data could revive demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is $82,500 a key resistance level for Bitcoin?
Bitfinex estimates that investors accumulated about 874,000 BTC between $81,000 and $82,500. Some holders could sell near their purchase prices if Bitcoin returns to that range.
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How much did US spot Bitcoin ETFs lose across three sessions?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $663 million in net outflows across three sessions. A $110.3 million inflow from BlackRock’s IBIT was offset by earlier withdrawals.
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What happened to Bitcoin’s $81,300 support level?
Bitcoin closed below $81,300 on Oct. 22, 23 and 24 after the level had supported the market for several weeks. Bitfinex identified the former support as potential resistance.
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Where could Bitcoin find support if the sell-off continues?
Bitfinex identified a concentration of about 739,000 BTC accumulated between $77,500 and $80,000. The $77,765 True Market Mean is another level that could come into focus.
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Why is the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 decision important for Bitcoin?
The Fed’s guidance could affect expectations for borrowing costs and demand for risk assets. As of Oct. 25, markets priced a 9.4% chance of an October hike and a 72.1% chance of a December hike.
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