Altcoin Daily
Veteran investor Mike Novogratz, calling in on a 40-year market cycle, told viewers he will not sell Bitcoin at $60,000 and is holding to a March-of-next-year deadline as the thesis. Bitcoin is on pace to close three straight red quarters, a pattern that preceded the 76% drawdown after 2014, 69% after 2019, and 66% after the 2022 FTX collapse; the current pullback sits at roughly 50%, in his view shallow enough that one final capitulation leg is plausible but not certain.
Why it matters
The structural signals Novogratz leans on are unusually aligned. Google searches for Bitcoin sit at an all-time low, long-term holders now control a record 79% of circulating supply, and reactivation of old coins is at its lowest level since 2012. Translated into flow terms, the cohort with the lowest cost basis is the one refusing to sell, exactly the supply dynamic that has marked prior cycle floors. Novogratz frames the catalyst as the Fed eventually cutting into a slowing economy, with populism and global money-supply expansion keeping the long-run case intact regardless of the next few months of price action.
Market impact
He also acknowledged the overhang from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and its preferred instrument STRC, now trading roughly 25% below par, calling Michael Saylor's response the variable that will dominate BTC sentiment for months while the market adjusts. On the legitimizing flow side, the first Fannie Mae-backed Bitcoin mortgage closed in Michigan this week via Better Mortgage, letting a buyer pledge $BTC as collateral without a sale or capital-gains event, with $250M of initial loan volume protected and a nationwide rollout planned this summer. That plumbing layer is what he means by utility, and it is what makes Bitcoin, in his words, "boring in the best way" as it gets baked into the traditional system.
Frequently asked questions
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What exactly did Mike Novogratz say about Bitcoin at $60K?
Novogratz said he would not advocate selling at $60,000 if the holder is a long-term investor, and that he is giving Bitcoin until March of next year. If BTC has not come back by then, he said, something fundamental may have changed; otherwise he expects the four-year cycle and a Fed cut window to do the work.
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Why do three straight red quarters matter for Bitcoin?
Three consecutive red quarterly closes are rare in Bitcoin's history. They preceded the 76% drawdown after 2014, the 69% bear market after 2019, and the 66% post-FTX collapse after 2022. The current cycle is only down about 50%, leaving room for one final capitulation leg if the historical pattern repeats.
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What do long-term holders controlling 79% of supply imply?
Long-term holders now control a record 79% of circulating Bitcoin supply, and reactivation of old coins is at its lowest since 2012. In flow terms, the cohort with the lowest cost basis is refusing to sell, which is the supply signature that has historically marked prior cycle bottoms rather than mid-cycle dips.
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What is the Fannie Mae-backed Bitcoin mortgage milestone?
A couple in Michigan completed the first Fannie Mae-backed mortgage in US history that used Bitcoin as collateral rather than selling it. The product, run by Better Mortgage, lets borrowers pledge $BTC without triggering capital-gains taxes and without margin calls on price drops; $250M in initial loan volume is…
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What is the Strategy (MicroStrategy) STRC overhang Novogratz flagged?
Strategy's preferred instrument STRC is trading roughly 25% below par, which Novogratz called a structural overhang on BTC because Michael Saylor is simultaneously the asset's largest holder, advocate, and salesman. Until Saylor resolves the preferred-equity question, the market is likely to trade with that pressure…
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