CoinDesk
Bitcoin is poised to end July up roughly 7.5%, even after slipping below $63,000 on Friday and absorbing a string of macro and security shocks. Rate-hike expectations have firmed, bond yields have climbed, the AI trade has unwound sharply, and a high-profile exploit hit Coldcard, one of bitcoin's best-known hardware wallets, draining at least $38 million. Through it all, BTC has held above its bear-market lows.
Why it matters
The resilience is largely a positioning story, Bitfinex analysts argue. Derivatives traders were largely flushed out during the late-June selloff that pushed BTC below $58,000 on July 1, leaving crypto with far less leverage than equities heading into the Fed meeting. Average daily liquidations have stayed well below this year's typical $400 million-$500 million range, which is why a macro shock translated into a 3% dip rather than a cascade. "Crypto fell less than levered equity themes because the forced-selling fuel was already spent," the analysts wrote.
The Coldcard incident has not moved price materially, but it has revived the self-custody debate. "The proceeds haven't yet been liquidated, but the knock-on effect of this and the likelihood of liquidation will weigh on bitcoin pricing in the near term," said Paul Howard, director at Wincent. More broadly, the exploit underscores the operational risks that still sit underneath crypto's fundamental promise of holding your own keys.
Market impact
Macro is back in the driver's seat. Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said markets may be entering "a new volatility regime" as investors swing between expectations for cuts, pauses and hikes, which keeps pressure on high-beta assets until the outlook clarifies. Bitfinex expects positioning to stay defensive into next week's U.S. jobs report, with the real question being whether spot BTC ETF inflows resume once traders have a cleaner read on the Fed.
Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, framed the path plainly: "Base case is a choppy August with bitcoin range-bound unless real yields fall or ETF flows turn consistently positive again.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is bitcoin holding up better than equities in July?
Bitfinex analysts say derivatives traders were largely flushed out during the late-June selloff that pushed BTC below $58,000, leaving crypto with far less leverage than equities. Average daily liquidations have stayed well below the year's typical $400M-$500M range, limiting forced selling during the latest macro…
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What happened in the Coldcard exploit?
A high-profile exploit involving Coldcard, one of bitcoin's best-known hardware wallets, resulted in at least $38 million worth of bitcoin being stolen. The proceeds have not yet been liquidated, according to Wincent's Paul Howard, who said the knock-on effect could weigh on BTC pricing in the near term.
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How much is bitcoin up in July?
Bitcoin is on track to finish July up roughly 7.5%, even after slipping below $63,000 on Friday for a 3% daily decline. BTC has held above its bear-market lows despite rising rate-hike expectations, climbing bond yields and a sharp unwind in the AI trade.
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What macro event is traders watching next?
Analysts are focused on next week's U.S. jobs report, the next major macro catalyst after the Fed meeting. The bigger question is whether spot bitcoin ETF inflows resume once investors have a cleaner read on the Fed's path.
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What is the outlook for bitcoin in August?
Bitget Wallet's Lacie Zhang described a base case of a choppy, range-bound August unless real yields fall or ETF flows turn consistently positive again. She said the market can absorb a neutral Fed, but not a stronger dollar, higher real yields and weak ETF demand all at once.
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