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CryptoQuant said bitcoin has entered the early phase of a new bull market after rallying more than 25% from early last week, but "official" confirmation hinges on a daily close above the 365-day moving average near $83,100. BTC touched above $81,000 this week, fuelled by two macro catalysts: the U.S. Treasury's plan to double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9, and President Trump's comments hinting the U.S. government may be considering buying bitcoin. Bitcoin closed around $79,000, roughly 5% below the 365-day MA.
Why it matters
The 365-day moving average is CryptoQuant's preferred bull-bear threshold, historically marking cycle turns in past runs. That BTC has rallied more than 25% without yet closing above it shows how steep the MA has become after an extended prior bear-market baseline, and how high the bar sits for "official" confirmation. Two macro tailwinds are doing the lifting: the Treasury's planned doubling of long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9 loosens dollar liquidity, while Trump's suggestion that the U.S. government could itself buy bitcoin opens a sovereign-accumulation narrative the market has never fully priced. CryptoQuant's composite Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 in a single week, the firm's strongest reading since October 6, 2025, when BTC traded near $124,000, with eight of ten onchain, market and valuation metrics now flashing bullish.
Market impact
Demand data backs the regime shift. Apparent spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December, and spot and futures demand are expanding together for the first time since early October 2025, when BTC last hit its all-time high. CryptoQuant called that combination "genuine spot accumulation alongside returning leverage." But the tape is also flashing short-term overheated. Traders' unrealized profit margin climbed to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025, and short-term holders booked $1.2 billion in realized profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22, including a single-day record $614 million on Aug. 20 as BTC traded near $78,000 to $79,000.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is $83,000 the key level for confirming bitcoin's bull market?
CryptoQuant treats the 365-day moving average, currently near $83,100, as the historical threshold separating bull and bear cycles. BTC closed around $79,000, roughly 5% below the MA, so a decisive daily close above $83,000 would be the "official" trigger.
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What triggered bitcoin's 25% rally this week?
Two macro catalysts. The U.S. Treasury plans to double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9, loosening dollar liquidity, and President Trump hinted the U.S. government may itself be considering buying bitcoin.
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What does CryptoQuant's Bull Score of 80 actually mean?
It is the firm's composite of ten onchain, market and valuation metrics. The score jumped from 30 to 80 in one week, CryptoQuant's strongest reading since October 6, 2025, when BTC traded near $124,000, with eight of the ten components now flashing bullish.
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Is the bitcoin market overheated right now?
CryptoQuant flagged short-term overheating. Traders' unrealized profit margin climbed to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025, and short-term holders booked $1.2 billion in realized profits from Aug. 20 to Aug. 22, including a record $614 million single day on Aug. 20.
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Why are exchange inflows rising if it's a bull market?
CryptoQuant says inflows typically signal intent to distribute, take profit, or hedge. BTC exchange inflows hit about 53,000 BTC, the highest since June 5, ETH inflows around 1.7 million ETH, and XRP whale inflows roughly 460 million XRP, the largest since February.
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