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The CryptoQuant founder's call points to 12–24 months of bullish or sideways price action, a framing that puts the market at the start of a new cycle rather than a bear-market bounce.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost identifies $80,500 as the level where the average Bitcoin investor breaks even, echoing late-2025 market behavior.
The bullish forecast rests on his view that Bitcoin's bear market ended this summer and a new cycle is underway.
Spot demand has contracted by about 170,000 BTC in 30 days, while speculative futures demand fell 90% in 15 days, raising the bar for further gains.
Cooling spot and futures demand adds to the risk, though CryptoQuant says support near $80,000, $71,000 and $67,000 could keep a pullback within the young bull market.
The call points to a stronger but more mature market cycle, with lower upside paired with a less severe downturn.
A thinner pool of underwater holders stacks cost-basis support below market. Deep bears historically need concentrated loss-holders to fuel capitulation; that pool is now thinning.
The range is more than a chart level: a hold here lines up with on-chain signs of institutional reaccumulation, while a slip invites the trend to weaken before any next-leg move.
Reversal calls from on-chain desks reshape positioning, with the structural spot Bitcoin ETF bid stacking on top of any confirmed regime shift.
The 500M XRP outflow is the cleaner signal; the CLARITY Act timing is the catalyst. Convergence on the same week is the setup bulls have waited on since the SEC fight.
Exchange deposits can increase BTC supply available for sale, turning $80K into a test of whether demand can absorb it.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 in a single week, the strongest reading since October 2025, while short-term holders booked a record $614M in realized profits in one day.
The split between surging derivatives and a two-year-low spot market on the largest venue signals a leverage-driven, not directional, market, and it arrived just ahead of MiCA's July 1 enforcement…
The burn itself is routine treasury plumbing, but Binance's Tron USDT balance slipping under $1B for the first time since late 2025 is the move traders are watching.
Spikes of this magnitude on deposit-side flow have historically preceded sharp directional moves; the read across BTC, ETH and alts suggests the next leg is being staged on exchanges right now.
The metric tracks the share of coins moved at a loss, a behavioural proxy for capitulation. A fresh floor typically marks a sentiment extreme, not a confirmed bottom.
CryptoQuant data shows wallets under 1 BTC sending an average of 329 BTC a day to Binance, against a 2021 peak near 2,690 BTC, a 12x drop that frames this cycle's missing retail bid.
CryptoQuant's Darkfost flags the second-longest weak cycle for Binance-listed alts since 2020, with only the prior bear market's ten-month stretch running longer.
The call lands as the firm's annualized preferred dividend bill climbs past the yield it can realistically fund, turning the treasury flywheel into a structural drag rather than the accelerant it was…
The prescription breaks with how Saylor has run the company since 2020: STRC's $82.50 print, 14-month dividend coverage, and a $10.6B unrealized loss make the buy-anything posture look unsustainable…
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