CryptoSlate
Bitcoin options expiring Friday show 9,128 BTC in puts versus 6,373 BTC in calls, giving the contract a 1.43 put-to-call ratio and about $451 million in put notional exposure. Deribit data placed Bitcoin near $83,450 after last week's selloff, with the largest put concentrations at $80,000, $78,000 and $76,000.
Why it matters
The three strikes hold about $188 million, $162 million and $101 million in notional exposure, respectively. Together, they represent nearly 35% of the $1.29 billion expiry and sit close to levels Bitcoin tested during the recent decline. Put open interest does not necessarily mean every trader is buying downside protection, since some contracts were sold to collect premiums.
Calls are less concentrated near the market. The largest call positions sit at $90,000, $87,000 and $85,000, with a combined $219 million in notional exposure. Deribit's maximum pain level is $83,000, the price that would minimize the aggregate intrinsic value of the outstanding options.
Market impact
Laevitas said seven-day at-the-money implied volatility fell to 32.01% from about 34.5% a week earlier, pricing Wednesday's CPI report as a relatively limited event. At the snapshot price, that implies a modeled weekly range of roughly $79,750 to $87,150, which includes the $80,000 put strike but remains below the main $90,000 call concentration.
Bitcoin's seven-day 25-delta skew also moved from +1.98 to -2.40, while perpetual-futures open interest fell 1.9% to about $29.33 billion. Hotter inflation could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure BTC toward the $78,000 to $80,000 put cluster. Softer data could support a recovery toward higher call strikes before Friday's expiry.
Frequently asked questions
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How much Bitcoin put exposure sits between $76,000 and $80,000?
About $451 million in put notional is concentrated across the $76,000, $78,000 and $80,000 strikes. The positions represent nearly 35% of the $1.29 billion Friday expiry.
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What is Bitcoin options market maximum pain for Friday?
Deribit’s maximum pain level is $83,000. That is the settlement price that would minimize the aggregate intrinsic value of the outstanding options based on current positioning.
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How did Bitcoin implied volatility change before CPI?
Seven-day at-the-money implied volatility declined to 32.01% from about 34.5% a week earlier. Laevitas said the curve was pricing Wednesday’s CPI report as a relatively limited event.
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How are Bitcoin calls positioned compared with puts?
The largest call positions are at $90,000, $87,000 and $85,000, with combined notional exposure of $219 million. That is less than half the exposure at the three major downside put strikes.
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What could CPI mean for Bitcoin before the options expiry?
Hotter inflation could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure Bitcoin toward the $78,000 to $80,000 put cluster. Softer data could support a recovery toward the higher call strikes.
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