Bitcoin recently tagged $77,000 before running into the 200-day moving average — a resistance level that has capped multiple recovery attempts and now has analysts eyeing a potential slide into the upper $60,000 range. A cycle bottom in late June or July is one scenario being discussed, contingent on macro conditions stabilizing.
Why it matters
This downturn is being framed as a post-quantitative tightening dip that was anticipated by cycle-aware analysts, not a structural breakdown. The Purchasing Managers Index has begun to expand, which historically has marked the early stages of macro recovery — a signal that the macro floor may be forming even as crypto prices continue to compress. Ethereum's drop to $2,200 puts it at price levels last seen in 2021, effectively erasing years of gains and resetting the market broadly.
Market impact
Altcoins are bearing the brunt of the drawdown, with many names off 75–97% from their peaks. The current price action in both BTC and ETH is drawing comparisons to previous capitulation phases, where the final flush preceded multi-cycle recoveries. Investors watching this setup are being advised to monitor PMI expansion and the 200-day MA on Bitcoin as the two key macro and technical triggers that would signal a credible reversal.
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