Bitcoin's supply-in-profit metric has crossed below its supply-in-loss counterpart, a configuration that has marked every prior BTC market cycle bottom, according to the Into the Cryptoverse YouTube channel. The chart tracks the share of circulating BTC sitting in profit versus loss, and in every prior cycle the crossover preceded the eventual low by roughly one to four months — September 2011 into late-2011 bottom, September 2014 into January 2015, November 2018 into December 2018, and the first 2022 crossover in June with the November trough.
Why it matters
The crossover matters because it has front-run every cycle bottom on the daily timeframe, regardless of what macro narrative is dominating at the time. Into the Cryptoverse argues the metric filters out exactly the noise — Fed policy, ETF flows, halving chatter — that tends to derail discretionary calls. With BTC currently sitting near 51% supply in profit against prior cycle peaks of 54%, 55%, 60% and 64%, the historical ceiling for the metric during the loss phase suggests limited downside in the depth of any drawdown even if the timing slips.
Market impact
The framing carries an explicit DCA prescription: starting a dollar-cost-averaging cadence after a June low and absorbing a potential Q4 drawdown has historically preceded multi-year upswings. Channel host Benjamin Cowen noted he personally deployed that playbook in summer 2018 and summer 2022, both instances where interim markdowns were later rendered irrelevant. The implication for positioning is that a confirmed low inside the one-to-four-month window — roughly now through October — would be the highest-conviction cyclical entry of the four-year cycle, with 2027 and 2028 shaping up as the next leg if prior cadence holds.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Bitcoin supply-in-profit crossover?
It is the moment the percentage of circulating BTC held in profit falls below the percentage held in loss. Into the Cryptoverse highlights it as a recurring cyclical signal that has preceded every prior BTC market bottom by one to four months.
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How accurate has the crossover been at calling prior BTC cycle lows?
The channel notes four clean precedents: the lines crossed in September 2011 with the late-2011 bottom, September 2014 into January 2015, November 2018 into December 2018, and June 2022 with the November 2022 trough. The lag between crossover and bottom has ranged from about one to four months.
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What percentage of BTC supply is in profit right now?
According to the video, roughly 51% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently in profit. Prior loss-phase peaks across the 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2022 cycles reached 54%, 55%, 60% and 64% respectively.
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What is Into the Cryptoverse's recommended strategy at the crossover?
Host Benjamin Cowen recommends starting a DCA cadence after the June low and accepting that Q4 may produce another drawdown. He cites his own 2018 and 2022 summer buys as examples where interim markdowns were later made irrelevant by the subsequent multi-year uptrend.
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When does Into the Cryptoverse expect the next BTC bull market leg?
If the four-year cycle cadence holds, the channel expects the next major leg to unfold across 2027 and 2028 after a confirmed bottom inside the one-to-four-month window from the current crossover.
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