Bitcoin's percentage of supply in profit has crossed its supply in loss for the first time this cycle — a signal that, across every prior bear market, has preceded the final cycle low by roughly one to four months. The analyst behind Into the Cryptoverse flagged the crossover as the single metric he required before calling a potential market cycle bottom, having explicitly told followers to ignore rallies in the first half of the year as counter-trend moves.
Why it matters
The crossover has occurred in every Bitcoin cycle going back to 2011, and in each case the definitive low followed within weeks to months: September 2011 cross, December 2011 low; September 2014 cross, January 2015 low; November 2018 cross, December 2018 low; June and September 2022 crosses, November 2022 low. The consistency of the pattern across wildly different macro and narrative environments is what gives it analytical weight — the signal is structural, not story-driven. Supply in loss currently sits near 51%, below the 55–64% peaks seen in prior cycles, suggesting the metric has room to run but is not at an extreme.
Market impact
The analyst frames the next one to four months — roughly through July to October — as the probable window for the cycle bottom, with DCA accumulation after the June low as the historically supported entry strategy. He notes the four-year cycle has absorbed every attempt to fade it and expects its loudest critics this year to become its loudest advocates by year-end. A re-cross back into negative territory, as briefly occurred in June 2022 before a final September re-cross, remains a live risk and would extend the bottoming window.
Frequently asked questions
-
What does the Bitcoin supply-in-profit crossover signal historically mean for price?
In every cycle since 2011, the supply-in-profit crossing supply-in-loss has preceded the final market cycle low by roughly one to four months, making it a reliable structural bottom indicator rather than a narrative-driven one.
-
When could the Bitcoin cycle low arrive based on this signal?
The analyst estimates the probable window runs from now through roughly July to October, though a brief re-cross — as occurred in June 2022 before a September re-cross — could push the timeline toward August or September.
-
Where does Bitcoin's supply-in-loss metric stand relative to prior cycle peaks?
Supply in loss currently sits near 51%, below the 55–64% peaks recorded in previous bear market cycles, suggesting the metric has not yet reached the extremes typically associated with final capitulation.
CoinDesk
Crypto News
TheBlock
WuBlockchain
CoinTelegraph
Glassnode
Lookonchain