Bitcoin sweeps February low as bear market parallels deepen

Bitcoin has broken below its February 2026 low, confirming the base case that the bear market was never truly over. The move mirrors the 2018 cycle almost structurally: a February low, a higher low in late March and early April, a rally to the 200-day moving average in May, and then a new lower low in June — the same sequence played out 17-19 weeks apart in both cycles.

Why it matters

The analyst behind Into the Cryptoverse argues this is a textbook midterm-year pattern. Bitcoin is currently down roughly 31-32% year-to-date, which sits almost exactly at the historical average for prior midterm years at this point in the calendar. The cycle topped on apathy rather than euphoria — no final rotation into altcoins, no blow-off to 200K — which is why the drawdown feels milder than 2018 but structurally rhymes with both 2018 and 2019. The realized price sits near $53-54K, a level Bitcoin has historically breached in every major bear market, though the timing has varied from June to November depending on the cycle.

Market impact

The key levels to watch: $60K as near-term support and ~$50K as the 45%-below-yearly-open level that aligns with the midterm-year average by mid-June. The base case is a June local low followed by a counter-trend rally, then a final cycle low in Q4 — likely lower than June unless a deep capitulation resets on-chain indicators first. DCA entries in the second half of the midterm year have historically outperformed first-half buys. Until the June low forms and confirms, the analyst cautions against calling a bottom.