Bitcoin tags the 200-week moving average — a cyclical date…

Bitcoin has touched the 200-week moving average (200WMA), currently sitting near $61,800 — a level that has served as a cyclical landmark in every prior bear phase. The pattern is mechanical: post-halving, Bitcoin breaks the 50-week MA, then the 100-week MA, and finally tests the 200-week MA. That sequence has now completed for the third time.

Why it matters

The 200WMA has historically offered support, but last cycle it failed — Bitcoin briefly undercut even the 300-week moving average, which currently sits near $54K, close to Bitcoin's realized price. That precedent means the level is a magnet, not a guaranteed floor. Cycle analysis comparing 2025 to prior midterm years shows Bitcoin is down roughly 29–30% from its yearly open, roughly in line with the historical midterm-year average of around 32% drawdown at this stage. The base-case scenario points to a June low, a counter-trend rally in July–August, and a potential final cycle bottom in Q4.

Market impact

Near-term catalysts include a Fed meeting and a Bank of Japan rate decision around June 17th — the BoJ's July 2024 rate hike preceded Bitcoin's August capitulation, and a similar dynamic could be in play now. If Bitcoin holds the 200WMA through end of June, a rally into July becomes the working thesis. A weekly close below it, however, opens the path toward $57K–$58K and keeps the Q4 capitulation scenario alive. The 2018 and 2022 playbooks both saw Q4 final lows even after June weakness.