WuBlockchain
Glassnode's latest on-chain read leaves Bitcoin in deep value territory, but the firm stopped short of calling a bottom. BTC has now spent roughly five months below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200, two levels that historically frame fair-value resets.
Why it matters
Long-term holder loss realization has climbed from 15% of total realized value in early February to 43%, with daily realized losses peaking at $280 million, the highest level since the December 2022 capitulation. That kind of realized-loss expansion usually marks late-stage capitulation, but Glassnode stressed that selling pressure from long-term holders has not cooled yet, which is the precondition they want to see before calling the floor.
Market impact
The institutional tape confirms the on-chain hesitation. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have narrowed from $193 million per day to $88.9 million, still negative. Daily ETF trading volume of $650 million to $950 million sits about 80% below the October 2025 peak, a sign that demand has not stabilized. In derivatives, the options put/call open-interest ratio has fallen to 0.56, its 2026 low, indicating reduced short-side demand, though options skew still shows buyers paying up for downside protection. Glassnode's bar for confirmation is concrete: cooling long-term holder selling, ETF flows turning net positive, and a recovery above the $76,600 and $72,200 cost-basis levels.
Frequently asked questions
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What does Glassnode mean by Bitcoin being in deep value territory?
Bitcoin has traded below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for roughly five months, levels Glassnode uses to frame fair-value resets in bear cycles.
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How bad is long-term holder selling right now?
Long-term holder loss realization climbed from 15% of total realized value in early February to 43%, with daily realized losses peaking at $280 million, the highest level since the December 2022 capitulation.
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Are spot Bitcoin ETF flows still negative?
Yes. Daily outflows have narrowed from $193 million to $88.9 million, but the tape remains net negative. Daily ETF trading volume of $650 million to $950 million is roughly 80% below the October 2025 peak.
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What do derivatives signal about a Bitcoin bottom?
The options put/call open-interest ratio has fallen to 0.56, its 2026 low, suggesting reduced short-side demand. Options skew, however, still shows buyers paying up for downside protection.
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What would confirm a Bitcoin bottom according to Glassnode?
Glassnode named three conditions: cooling long-term holder selling pressure, ETF flows turning net positive, and a recovery above both the $76,600 True Market Mean and the $72,200 short-term holder cost basis.
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