BTC Stays Defensive at 30/100, Glassnode Compass Shows
Macro provided a 24-point lift, but light flows at 30/100 leave the reading defensive despite valuation sitting at the cycle's discounted end.
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Macro provided a 24-point lift, but light flows at 30/100 leave the reading defensive despite valuation sitting at the cycle's discounted end.
Bitcoin's cycle position is marked deep in capitulation, while leverage remains fairly light and rotation is tilted toward alts.
The spike traces to the Coldcard firmware exploit, with the channel reading it as holders migrating seeds to alternative custody rather than shifting market conviction.
Cheap options let traders stack directional bets without immediate pain; the danger comes the moment positioning is forced to unwind, with no liquidity standing in front of it.
The headline 1.5% growth print undercut forecasts, but a 3.2% consumer-spending pace and 5.7% GDP price index leave the Fed little room to ease, keeping $BTC pinned below $69K.
Glassnode says the marginal BTC buyer is now being paid to wait: only the second time on record that Treasury yields beat the carry trade, with spot volume at a 2019 low.
Glassnode's Week 31 pulse reads as four corroborating signals of consolidation: spot stuck between $64K and $66.7K, perps showing softer buy-side aggression, spot ETFs back in net outflows, and…
The 34-page quarterly frames Bitcoin as testing a turn from correction to accumulation, with ETF outflows decelerating and leveraged longs quietly building underneath a firmer macro liquidity…
Short-term-holder cost basis at $69K is the level that separates a real institutional re-engagement from a tactical wager on July 29, with whale wallets and ETF flows carrying the rally until broader…
The strongest positioning shift of the year meets the bear market's heaviest supply ceiling: reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and an air pocket opens to $84K; rejection sends the tape back to…
Spot at $64.9K sits under the STH cost basis, true market mean, and active investor mean, with realized price the only line still anchoring the cycle low.
Galaxy's aged-supply chart and Glassnode's long-term-holder loss data tell two halves of the same story, and the $69,000 short-term cost basis decides which half sticks.
Glassnode's entity-adjusted STH realized profit metric jumped to $35.7M, its highest reading in months, as buyers who entered near the recent lows sold into the same recovery that anchored LTH…
The 30-day moving average has slipped under 2024 levels, and Glassnode frames the dip as a quiet regime, not a structural break, with attention rotated elsewhere until $BTC momentum returns.
Glassnode's Week 29 read: the price recovery lacks the conviction to qualify as a real breakout, with thin spot participation, defensive options skew, and weak organic demand offsetting returning ETF…
Glassnode says capitulation is the gate, not price: BTC's $58K→$64K bounce still sits below the True Market Mean and STH cost basis, while LTH loss-realization at $280M/day keeps a structural floor…
Bitcoin has traded under both the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis for five months, with long-term holder losses hitting a December 2022 high and ETF outflows still negative.
Spot selling has cooled, futures open interest is rising, and ETF outflows are drying up. The Glassnode Week 28 pulse says the structure looks resilient, with a hot-capital overlay that could shake…
The IV Moneyness Heatmap shows depressed implieds across strikes, but put-side demand is fading while calls hold steady, the first quiet sign of returning optimism in BTC derivatives.
The framework's headline regime hasn't flipped, but Glassnode is flagging a potential bottom forming beneath the signal, the kind of pivot traders watch for an exit from the Strong-Off state that's…