Bitcoin's latest rally carried it to within $54 of the 21-week EMA at $78,415 — essentially tagging the bear-market resistance band before pulling back. Analyst Benjamin Cowen notes that a wick to this level without a clean weekly close above it is not automatically a rejection: both 2023 and 2024 saw similar wicks followed by a subsequent push through the same level before the real reversal arrived.
The historical analogue that concerns him most is 2018, where a February low and a higher low in April preceded a brief rally that failed by end of April. The current structure mirrors that setup more closely than the 2014 cycle, where a lower April low gave the market enough energy to stay elevated into June. The April 29 Fed meeting — potentially coinciding with a Bank of Japan rate decision — is the near-term catalyst to watch.
Even if BTC clears the 21-week EMA on a weekly close, the…
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