CoinDesk
SpaceX shares have surged more than 40% since their June 12 debut, pushing the Elon Musk-owned company's market cap to roughly $2.5 trillion — the world's sixth-largest firm and nearly twice the size of the entire bitcoin market at about $1.2 trillion. Only about 4.2% of shares were available to trade on day one, so a thin float is doing significant work in setting the price. The market is also paying for an AI story: SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI folded in the Grok models and data centers, and the company formally agreed Tuesday to take over AI coding startup Cursor at a $60 billion valuation, placing it in direct competition with OpenAI and Anthropic.
Why it matters
Risk appetite is back, but the hottest trade is an expensive, unprofitable stock rather than bitcoin. ARK made that point explicitly this week, funding SpaceX purchases by selling other holdings — meaning the same risk budget crypto wants is being redirected into a 130-times-sales name with a $4.94 billion net loss on $18.67 billion of 2025 revenue. The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% (the highest since 1995) the same week, the Fed is expected to hold under new chair Kevin Warsh, and gold is holding above $4,300 — so the macro backdrop is open, but the marginal dollar is going to SPCX, not BTC.
Market impact
The concern is that expectations leave almost no room for error. Lukman Otunuga, head of markets at FXTM, told CoinDesk that "with the expectations already sky high, should SpaceX disappoint down the line, the fallout will hit the broader stock market, as well as the beneficiaries of the AI boom." For crypto, the read is asymmetric: bitcoin benefits as the high-beta member of the same complex when risk appetite stays open, but a SpaceX stumble drags the whole AI-and-risk basket — and high-multiple names like Cursor's peers — down with it.
Frequently asked questions
-
How does SpaceX's $2.5T valuation compare to the bitcoin market?
SpaceX's roughly $2.5 trillion market cap is nearly twice the size of the entire bitcoin market, valued at about $1.2 trillion as of the report.
-
Why is SpaceX trading at 130x sales despite a $4.94B net loss?
Investors are pricing SpaceX for its AI expansion — the February xAI acquisition and a $60B deal to absorb Cursor — rather than its rocket business, with a thin 4.2% debut float amplifying the move.
-
How is SpaceX's IPO affecting crypto risk capital?
ARK funded SpaceX purchases this week by selling other holdings, signaling that the same risk budget flowing to crypto is being redirected into SPCX. Bitcoin benefits as the high-beta member of the complex when risk appetite stays open.
-
What happens to bitcoin and AI stocks if SpaceX stumbles?
FXTM's Lukman Otunuga warned that with expectations already sky-high, a SpaceX disappointment would hit the broader stock market and the beneficiaries of the AI boom — dragging the whole risk-and-AI complex, including BTC, down with it.
-
Why is SpaceX considered a competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic now?
SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI brought the Grok models and data centers in-house, and the $60B Cursor deal adds AI coding infrastructure, putting it in direct competition with OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which have filed to go public.
CryptoSlate
WuBlockchain
WatcherGuru