Altcoin Daily
Macro analyst Ben Cowen, of the Into the Cryptoverse channel, told Altcoin Daily that Bitcoin's 2026 drawdown has tracked the 2018 bear cycle almost candle for candle on a year-to-date ROI basis, from the February low through the higher low in March and April, the May lower high, the June-July sweep of that February low, and the rally back into the 200-day moving average. The latest low printed in late June or early July at roughly $57,000, a price that maps almost directly onto 2018's $5,700 capitulation wick.
Cowen pegs the chance the cycle bottom is already in at 40-45%, higher than he would normally credit, and frames a base case that takes BTC into the high $40,000s or low $50,000s as the realised price near $53K gets tested. A deeper floor sits just below $40K at the balance price, a level every prior Bitcoin bear market has wicked beneath at the cycle low. He expects the final low to arrive earlier than 2018's December print, with timing pulled in by the fact that the 2025 high was October rather than December, putting his window in late September through early November based on the 51-55 week lengths of the last two bear markets.
Why it matters
The thesis is grounded in on-chain resets that have not yet fully cleared. The MVRV Z-score is not back below zero, the on-chain risk metric Cowen tracks sits near 0.1 rather than below it, and the supply-in-profit and supply-in-loss crossover has only just triggered. Two of the past three midterm years did not take Bitcoin below the realised price until October or November, which keeps the late-Q3 to early-Q4 window live. Cowen also flags a historical pattern in which a 10-20% stock-market correction starting in August or September of a midterm year is what delivers the final BTC low, with a possible rate-hike scare providing the narrative for that equity drawdown.
Market impact
For positioning, Cowen's read is that anything below $60K over a multi-month horizon is likely to look cheap in hindsight, and that dollar-cost averaging through the second half of the midterm year has historically been the higher-expected-value play versus waiting for confirmation. He argues the biggest risk for bears is being right about the bear market and never flipping bullish, leaving the trade right but the P&L flat, and notes that the loudest critics of the four-year cycle tend to become its loudest cheerleaders a few months after the bottom prints. With Bitcoin squeezed between the 21-week EMA, the 20-week SMA and the 200-week moving average, he expects a relief rally into late July or early August, a pullback, and then the final capitulation that hands patient accumulators the cycle low.
Frequently asked questions
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How similar is 2026's Bitcoin drawdown to the 2018 bear market on Cowen's read?
Year-to-date ROI lines up almost candle for candle. Both years saw a February low, a March-April higher low, a May lower high, a June-July sweep of the February low, and a rally back into the 200-day moving average. The 2026 low near $57K maps directly onto 2018's $5,700 wick.
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What does Cowen think the Bitcoin price floor is for this cycle?
Base case is the high $40,000s to low $50,000s as the realised price near $53K gets tested. A deeper structural floor sits just below $40K at the balance price, a level every prior Bitcoin bear has wicked beneath at the cycle low.
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When does Cowen expect the final Bitcoin bottom to print?
Late September through early November. The 2025 high landed in October rather than December, which he expects to pull the final low in earlier than 2018's December print. The last two bear markets ran 52 and 54 weeks, and 2026 is currently around week 38.
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What on-chain signals are still not reset, in Cowen's view?
The MVRV Z-score is not back below zero, his on-chain risk metric sits near 0.1 rather than below it, and the supply-in-profit and supply-in-loss crossover has only just triggered. Two of the past three midterm years did not take BTC below realised price until October or November.
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What stock-market signal does Cowen link to the final Bitcoin low?
A 10-20% correction in equities starting in August or September of a midterm year has historically been the trigger for Bitcoin's cycle low, with a potential rate-hike scare providing the narrative. He frames that drawdown as the catalyst that would pivot monetary policy expectations bullish for BTC.
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