Glassnode
Bitcoin is trading at $75.7K, a level that now sits beneath every major on-chain price model tracked by Glassnode. The True Market Mean — a long-horizon fair-value proxy — sits at $78.0K, the short-term holder cost basis is at $78.9K, and the Active Investors Mean, which weights only coins that have moved in the recent cycle, comes in highest at $85.0K. Spot is roughly $2.3K below the True Market Mean and $9.3K below the active-investor average.
Why it matters
The realised price — a measure of the average cost basis of every BTC in circulation — sits at $54.1K, roughly 28% below spot. That spread is the standard benchmark for cycle drawdown depth: when spot trades well above realised, holders are in aggregate profit; when it converges, the market is washing out weak hands. The current gap is wide, but the fact that spot is below the cost basis of recent buyers is what stands out. STHs in aggregate are underwater.
Market impact
Every model in the stack is now above price, which is the configuration historically associated with deep-discount zones rather than late-cycle tops. The signal is not directionally bullish on its own — realised price is still $20K below spot, and structural tops typically form with spot well above all of these bands. But the asymmetry of the setup is what active investors watch: the cohort that bought the recent rally is sitting on losses, and the next decisive move will depend on whether that cohort holds or distributes into any recovery toward the $78K–$85K band.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the True Market Mean for Bitcoin right now?
The True Market Mean sits at $78.0K per the latest Glassnode read, meaning Bitcoin's spot price of $75.7K is roughly $2.3K below that long-horizon fair-value proxy.
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What does the STH cost basis measure?
The short-term holder cost basis tracks the average price at which coins last moved within the recent cycle. It currently sits at $78.9K, putting recent buyers in aggregate underwater relative to the $75.7K spot price.
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Why is the Realized Price at $54.1K relevant?
The realised price is the average cost basis of every BTC in circulation, used as the standard benchmark for aggregate holder profitability. At $54.1K, it sits roughly 28% below spot, indicating the market as a whole is still in profit.
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Does spot trading below all on-chain models signal a bottom?
On its own it is not a directional buy signal, but configurations where every band in the stack sits above price have historically marked deep-discount zones rather than late-cycle tops, which is the asymmetry active investors monitor.
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What level would invalidate the discount-zone read?
A sustained move back above the $78.0K True Market Mean and especially the $85.0K Active Investors Mean would signal that recent buyers have returned to profit and the discount-zone configuration has resolved.
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