BTC Below 3 of 4 On-Chain Cost-Basis Models at $64.9K

Bitcoin's spot price is trading at $64.9K, sitting below three of the four headline on-chain cost-basis models tracked by Glassnode. Short-term holder cost basis sits at $69.5K, true market mean at $76.2K, and the active investor mean at $85.0K. The realized price, the cycle-wide aggregate cost basis across all UTXOs, is the only model still below spot at $52.9K.

Why it matters

The four models bracket different cohorts of buyers. STH cost basis reflects coins moved within the last 155 days and tracks recent marginal demand. True market mean smooths realized price across entities rather than UTXOs, dampening change-of-address noise. Active investor mean isolates wallets that are still spending, a proxy for participants who have not yet capitulated. Realized price captures the entire history of on-chain transactions at their moved-at prices and tends to anchor deep cycle lows. Spot sitting under three of the four is a positioning read: recent buyers, long-term active holders, and the entity-adjusted aggregate are all underwater at current levels.

Market impact

The gap between spot and STH cost basis is the number on-chain analysts watch for capitulation signals. At $4.6K below, the spread is wide enough that further STH selling pressure is plausible if price retests the level. Realized price at $52.9K is the structural floor; a break below would mark the first time in the cycle that spot trades under the full-network cost basis. Prior data points from @glassnode also showed a higher cluster around a $75.7K spot with STH cost basis at $78.9K, framing how rapidly the cohort pricing has reset.

Source: [Title: BTC Risk Indicator: Realized Price/True Market Mean/Active Investor Mean/STH-Realized Price Chart - Glassnode](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/da73676e-78a6-4880-5ca2-a227ee301230?s=1586114875&zoom=)