CryptoSlate
Bitcoin traded near $73,478 around 10:40 UTC on November 12 while its combined 30-day spot-and-perpetual demand estimate sat at negative 348,000 BTC, the weakest reading of the month, according to a November 11 CryptoQuant note by analyst RugaResearch.
From November 7 to November 10, the spot proxy improved by roughly 29,500 BTC, but the perpetual-futures estimate deteriorated by about 63,500 BTC over the same window. Both components stayed below zero, meaning the improvement is real but still short of positive territory.
Why it matters
The reading is an analyst's rolling 30-day proxy, not a purchase count, so persistence across several closes matters more than a single improvement. The surrounding flow data leans cautious: Farside showed $300 million in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 11, and CryptoQuant's CoinNiel reported roughly 9,956 BTC in net exchange inflows on November 10 followed by about 981 BTC in preliminary outflows the next day. All-exchange funding fell to 0.0051% from 0.0113%, so longs were still paying shorts, just at a lower rate, while open interest rose 1.2% to about $26 billion.
Market impact
Friday's Producer Price Index, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern on November 13, is the macro catalyst. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on November 10 that inflation remained too high and leaned toward a quarter-point December rate increase under his expected path, a conditional view rather than an FOMC commitment.
A hot PPI print would reinforce tighter-policy expectations and keep financing conditions restrictive. RugaResearch's stabilization scenario requires spot moving toward zero, easing futures weakness and a flattening total while price holds its lows; renewed spot weakness or an accelerating futures drag would undermine that case even if BTC briefly rebounds after the release.
Frequently asked questions
-
What does Bitcoin's combined 30-day demand estimate show?
The spot-and-perpetual estimate from CryptoQuant analyst RugaResearch sat at negative 348,000 BTC on November 10, the weakest reading of the month, with both the spot and futures components still below zero.
-
How much did spot demand improve versus futures demand?
From November 7 to November 10, the spot proxy improved by roughly 29,500 BTC, while the perpetual-futures estimate deteriorated by about 63,500 BTC, so the futures drag outweighed the spot gain.
-
How big were US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on November 11?
Farside's latest completed row showed net outflows of $300 million from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 11, a separate caution signal alongside the futures weakness.
-
Why does Friday's PPI report matter for Bitcoin?
The October Producer Price Index, due November 13 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, can shift expectations for financing conditions. A hot print would reinforce tighter-policy expectations and weigh on risk appetite.
-
What would confirm a stabilization case for Bitcoin?
Per RugaResearch, spot moving toward zero, easing futures weakness and a flattening total while price holds its lows would strengthen the range case, with smaller ETF outflows and sustained exchange withdrawals adding supporting context.
CoinTelegraph
TheBlock
WatcherGuru
Whale Alert
Lookonchain
WuBlockchain