Glassnode
Bitcoin is trading at $75,700, below the three short-term on-chain price models that capture the average cost basis of recent buyers. The Active Investors Mean — the average acquisition price of coins that have moved in the last 155 days — sits at $85,000. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, a proxy for the typical recent buyer's entry, is $78,900. The True Market Mean, which filters out lost and long-dormant coins, is $78,000.
Why it matters
The Realized Price — the broadest measure, covering every coin's last-moved value across all holders — is $54,100. That gap shows the current weakness is concentrated in short-term participants rather than the long-term holder base. When the spot trades below the STH cost basis, recent buyers are collectively underwater, a condition that historically produces two distinct outcomes: either a slow grind higher as weak hands exit, or a deeper flush that forces leveraged late buyers out before a durable bottom forms.
Market impact
With the spot 4% under the STH cost basis and 11% under the Active Investors Mean, the tape sits at a level that has rarely held without a recovery move. The Realized Price remains the floor reference for the long-term cohort; the cluster of short-term models in the $78K-$85K range is the band that any trend reversal would need to reclaim to neutralize the underwater-buyer overhang.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Active Investors Mean for Bitcoin?
The Active Investors Mean is the average acquisition price of all Bitcoin that has moved in the last 155 days. It currently sits at $85,000, meaning that cohort is roughly 11% underwater at the $75,700 spot price.
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How does the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis differ from the Realized Price?
The STH Cost Basis ($78,900) tracks coins held for under 155 days, capturing recent buyer behavior. The Realized Price ($54,100) covers every coin's last-moved value across the full holder base, including long-dormant supply, and acts as the broad market floor.
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What does it mean when spot trades below the STH cost basis?
It means recent buyers are collectively underwater on their entries. Historically this configuration has rarely held — it tends to resolve either through a slow grind higher as weak hands exit, or a deeper flush that clears leveraged late buyers before a durable bottom forms.
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Why is the True Market Mean different from a simple average?
The True Market Mean ($78,000) filters out lost, burned and long-dormant coins that would otherwise distort the average. The result is a tighter read on the entry price of economically active supply rather than the entire historical issuance.
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