Chinese AI Kimi puts BTC at $120K–$180K by end of 2026

Kimi, the large-language model built by Chinese startup Moonshot AI, projects Bitcoin reaching $120,000 to $180,000 by the end of 2026 in its bull case, while flagging a bear scenario that keeps BTC range-bound between $45,000 and $65,000. The spread is one of the widest in any AI-generated price series to date, and the reasoning behind both ends is more rigorous than most.

Why it matters

The bull case rests on four converging forces: the April 2024 halving compressing daily new supply to roughly 900 BTC while ETF products potentially absorb 5,000 or more BTC weekly; major wirehouses actively completing due diligence on 2–5% Bitcoin ETF allocations for client portfolios; at least one G20 nation announcing strategic BTC reserves; and a Fed easing cycle weakening the dollar. Kimi's model argues that all four firing simultaneously is what pushes the price above $150,000. The bear case is equally detailed — a global recession triggering forced liquidations, regulatory overreach targeting self-custody or imposing punitive crypto taxes, miner capitulation creating hash-rate instability, and a black swan event such as an exchange failure or quantum computing FUD.

Market impact

BTC is currently sitting at $66,690, down 9.35% on the week — placing it directly inside the upper boundary of Kimi's own bear case range. The 2024 all-time high breakout zone of $68,000–$73,000 has been lost for the first time since the original breakout in late 2024. The $62,000–$65,000 band is the last meaningful support before cycle structure deteriorates. Reclaiming $70,000 and then $75,000 are the near-term levels to watch before the $88,000–$95,000 targets from other models become realistic, let alone Kimi's $120,000–$180,000 end-of-2026 scenario.