TheBlock
Prospects for the Clarity Act dimmed sharply Monday after TD Cowen's Washington Research Group put the bill's odds of becoming law in the next few months at just 25%, citing a compressed legislative calendar and a stack of unresolved policy fights. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed for a cloture vote scheduled for Sept. 15, punting initial consideration past a month-long August recess, with the DeFi Education Fund's Talia Davis noting the delay frustrated industry players who had hoped for movement before lawmakers returned home. Both chambers will be in session only from Sept. 14 through Oct. 2 before breaking for the full month of October, leaving what one industry source called a "very slowly" moving Senate little room to clear the procedural hurdle and pass the bill before sending it to the House.
Why it matters
The 25% figure from TD Cowen managing director Jaret Seiberg is the most explicit public price on the bill's viability to date. "As we have written for a year, the best opportunity to pass Clarity was before the summer break," Seiberg said. "The bill is not dead, but the path forward is harder." The Clarity Act would be the first federal statute to comprehensively regulate digital asset markets, handing the CFTC much broader jurisdiction over digital assets and creating durable statutory definitions that the industry has chased since the Howey Test era.
Market impact
Three live fights have to land by mid-September. First, Section 404 on stablecoin rewards, where the Alsobrooks-Tillis compromise that allows transaction-based but not holding-based yield faces renewed pressure from the American Bankers Association to tighten language further. Second, an ethics package from Sens. Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis responding to President Trump's expanding crypto holdings, with state attorneys general empowered to enforce a ban on public officials issuing or sponsoring digital assets. Third, illicit finance objections from Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), whose opposition is firm enough that industry lobbyists are now focused on preventing other Democrats from being pulled into a potential no-vote coalition. The House version of Clarity passed last year but does not include Section 404 at all, meaning even a successful Senate passage could hit a conference wall, much as procedural chaos derailed last year's GENIUS Act consideration.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Clarity Act and what would it do?
The Clarity Act is a Senate bill that would create the first federal framework for digital asset markets, handing the CFTC much broader jurisdiction over crypto and defining how tokens are classified as securities or commodities.
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Why did TD Cowen put Clarity Act passage odds at 25%?
TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg said the best window to pass Clarity was before the summer break. With lawmakers facing a compressed September calendar, multiple unresolved policy fights, and an October recess, the procedural path now looks difficult.
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What is Section 404 in the Clarity Act?
Section 404 addresses stablecoin rewards, allowing platforms to pay yield on transactions and payments but not on passive holdings. The American Bankers Association is pushing to tighten the language, and the House version of the bill does not include Section 404 at all.
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Why is Trump ethics part of the Clarity Act fight?
Concerns over President Trump's expanding crypto holdings and business income have shadowed the bill for months. Sens. Gallego and Tillis have proposed an ethics package allowing state attorneys general to enforce a ban on public officials issuing or sponsoring digital assets.
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What is the SEC doing while Clarity stalls?
The SEC scheduled a Friday meeting to consider a tailored offering regime for crypto investment contracts, and Chair Paul Atkins has outlined a "token taxonomy" framework. The agency is also collaborating with the CFTC on "Project Crypto" to modernize digital asset oversight through rulemaking rather than legislation.
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