CoinDesk
Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, the market's lowest reading since its Jan. 11 launch. The odds have dropped roughly 30 percentage points from their opening level and 50 points from a Feb. 19 peak of 82%. The decline has continued as Senate negotiations struggle to secure Democratic support.
Why it matters
The bill would establish a federal framework for digital asset markets by drawing a clearer boundary between SEC and CFTC jurisdiction. Supporters say legislation would replace regulation through enforcement with durable rules that can survive changes in presidential administrations and encourage crypto businesses to remain under US oversight.
A bipartisan ethics provision has become the central obstacle. Sen. Ruben Gallego, one of two Democrats who advanced the bill from the Senate Banking Committee, has said he will not support it on the floor without language addressing conflicts involving public officials and digital assets. No bipartisan ethics text has emerged publicly.
Market impact
The falling Polymarket odds reflect mounting skepticism that lawmakers can complete the bill before the legislative window closes. Congress is approaching its August recess, with limited legislative weeks remaining afterward and no public resolution of the ethics dispute.
Industry executives continue to press for passage. Nova Labs executive Sarah Aberg said regulatory uncertainty delayed investment in the Helium wireless network, while representatives from Bullish, WisdomTree and Coin Center argued that a clear rule book would bring digital asset activity onshore and preserve protections for investors and software developers. Until senators reach a bipartisan deal, the market is pricing continued regulatory uncertainty as the likelier outcome.
Frequently asked questions
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Why have the CLARITY Act's Polymarket odds fallen to 32%?
Traders are reacting to unresolved Senate negotiations, the absence of bipartisan ethics language and a shrinking legislative calendar ahead of the August recess.
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What is the main obstacle to Senate passage?
A bipartisan ethics provision addressing conflicts involving public officials and digital assets remains the central sticking point.
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What would the CLARITY Act change for crypto oversight?
The bill would create a federal digital asset market framework and draw a clearer boundary between SEC and CFTC jurisdiction.
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Why does the crypto industry support the legislation?
Industry executives argue that durable rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty, bring more activity under US oversight and replace regulation through enforcement.
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How far have passage odds fallen from their peak?
Polymarket odds peaked at 82% on Feb. 19 and have since fallen to 32%, a decline of 50 percentage points.
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