Crypto bull market isn't dead — it's just running late!

Despite widespread bearish sentiment toward altcoins and Ethereum, a detailed technical and macro analysis argues the crypto bull market was never cancelled — it has simply been delayed by record-breaking quantitative tightening. Strategy recently acquired 1,587 BTC for $100 million, while Tom Lee's Bit Mine added $135 million in ETH and BTC exposure, signalling that institutional accumulation continues beneath the surface noise.

Why it matters

The core thesis rests on a historical parallel: 196 days after the end of QT in the previous cycle, the total altcoin market cap was still down 75% while the S&P 500 was already in price discovery — and altcoins subsequently exploded higher. Today, altcoins sit roughly 46% below all-time highs at the same post-QT milestone, with the S&P 500 again in price discovery, boosted by a reported US-Iran peace deal adding over $900 billion in equity market cap in a single session. Ethereum's monthly MACD histogram has printed six consecutive red candles — the exact pattern that marked cycle bottoms in 2022 and 2018 — while its RSI and Stochastic RSI sit at levels matching every prior major low.

Market impact

Bitcoin faces near-term resistance at its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (around $71,000–$73,000), and a clean weekly close above the 20-week moving average near $71,000 is the key confirmation level to watch. Until that break is confirmed, a continued consolidation or brief re-test of lower levels remains possible. The broader read, however, is that macro conditions — the end of QT, a new Fed chair, the Clarity Act, the Genius Act, and accelerating institutional and tokenization inflows — are converging at what the analysis frames as a high-opportunity, lower-risk entry zone for crypto assets.