CryptoSlate
Circle priced a $1.05B IPO at $31 in June 2025; Bullish followed at $37, raising $1.1B and debuting near a $13.2B valuation. Bankers sold both as proof that crypto had graduated into legitimate financial infrastructure, with regulated platforms, institutional flows, and revenue diversified enough to ride out a bear market. Kaiko's latest research argues that thesis is more fragile than the listing-day pop suggested — exchange trading activity, investor appetite, and post-IPO valuations remain tethered to Bitcoin price in ways most of these filings try to obscure.
Why it matters
Gemini gave the clearest read on the mechanism. The Winklevoss brothers lifted the September 2025 IPO target to as much as $3.08B on genuine crypto-rally demand, only to see the stock fall more than 75% from its $28 listing price by early 2026 as a shareholder lawsuit alleged investors were misled around a 25% workforce cut, market exits, and a projected significant annual loss on top of a $282.5M H1 2025 net loss. Kraken extended the pattern: Q3 2025 revenue of $648M, $178.6M adjusted EBITDA, and $576.8B in platform transaction volume justified its $20B Jane Street / Citadel-backed valuation, but Reuters reported in March 2026 that the exchange had frozen its IPO plans pending better market conditions. The implication is that the 2025 listings were priced into a tailwind that has since reversed, not into a diversified earnings base.
Market impact
The analytical split Kaiko highlights is between stablecoin issuers and exchange operators. Circle's revenue is tied to USDC reserves, payment infrastructure, and interest income on circulation — earnings largely uncoupled from spot trading volume or BTC-driven volatility. Crypto exchanges, by contrast, earn the bulk of fees when users actually transact, and that transaction volume still tracks Bitcoin's direction through retail excitement, institutional repositioning, and altcoin rotation. The public-market test is therefore whether exchanges can demonstrate audited, cycle-resilient revenue across derivatives, custody, staking, and institutional services rather than leaning on spot volume.
Frequently asked questions
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Why are crypto exchange IPOs struggling in 2026?
Kaiko's research shows exchange trading activity, investor appetite, and public valuations remain tethered to Bitcoin price. When BTC stalls, exchange fee income compresses fast, exposing the cyclical nature of the revenue base that bankers pitched as diversified infrastructure during the 2025 listing window.
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What happened to Gemini's stock after its IPO?
Gemini shares fell more than 75% from the $28 September 2025 IPO price by early 2026. A shareholder lawsuit alleged investors were misled around the listing period as the company disclosed a 25% workforce cut, market exits, and a $282.5M H1 2025 net loss.
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Why did Kraken freeze its IPO plans?
Reuters reported in March 2026 that Kraken had paused its US listing, which had been targeted for Q1 2026 following a $20B valuation backed by Jane Street and Citadel. The delay reflected deteriorating market conditions that made the listing window less favorable than it had been in late 2025.
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How does Circle's business differ from a crypto exchange?
Circle's revenue is tied to USDC circulation, reserves, and payment infrastructure — earnings largely uncoupled from spot trading volume or BTC volatility. Crypto exchanges earn the bulk of fees from transaction volume that still tracks Bitcoin's direction, making their revenue profile considerably more cyclical.
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What would make a crypto exchange IPO succeed after 2025?
Public investors are now looking for audited, cycle-resilient revenue across derivatives, custody, institutional services, and staking rather than reliance on spot trading volume. The exchanges that clear quarterly earnings scrutiny will be those that can demonstrate diversification through a Bitcoin downturn, not…
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