TheBlock
Bitcoin holders realised 14,600 BTC in daily profits on May 4 — the highest single-day print since December 10, 2025 — as the cryptocurrency extends a 20%-plus rally from early April to a three-month high near $80,180, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has held above 1.00 since mid-April, sitting at 1.016 on the latest read, signalling that recent buyers are consistently selling at a profit. On a 30-day rolling basis, net realised profits have flipped to +20,000 BTC — the first positive reading since December 22, 2025 — after touching -398,000 BTC during the February-March sell-off.
Why it matters
Moreno still classifies the move as a "bear market rally," not a structural regime change. The +20,000 BTC 30-day net profit print is well below the 130,000–200,000 BTC range that has historically marked confirmed bull-market transitions, and the gap is the single most important data point in the report.
Unrealised profit margins are also climbing — currently around +18%, against -29% during the February-March drawdown. History shows that as unrealised gains expand, the holder base becomes progressively more willing to distribute, raising the probability of a topping pattern if no fresh demand absorbs the supply.
Market impact
A confirmed top is not imminent. Moreno points to three demand-side cushions: perpetual futures demand keeps climbing, spot demand contraction has stayed mild rather than severe, and exchange inflows remain muted — a combination "consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak."
Translation: the supply pressure is real and building, but the bid is still thick enough to absorb it for now. Any break below the demand pillars — particularly a sudden surge in exchange inflows or a sharp unwind in perps open interest — would be the first signal that the correction Moreno warns about is actually starting.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR)?
It measures whether short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1.00 means sellers are, on aggregate, locking in gains; CryptoQuant noted STH-SOPR has held above 1.00 since mid-April, with the latest print at 1.016.
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How much profit have Bitcoin holders realised on the recent rally?
Holders realised 14,600 BTC in daily profits on May 4, the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. On a 30-day rolling basis, net realised profits flipped positive at +20,000 BTC — the first positive reading since December 22, 2025.
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Why does CryptoQuant still call this a 'bear market rally'?
Because the +20,000 BTC 30-day net profit print is far below the 130,000–200,000 BTC range historically associated with confirmed bull-market transitions, according to CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno. Unrealised gains are recovering but the scale is not yet consistent with a structural regime change.
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What could trigger a correction from here?
Moreno points to three demand-side cushions that have held so far: rising perpetual futures demand, mild spot demand contraction, and muted exchange inflows. A sharp jump in exchange inflows or a sudden unwind in perps open interest would be the first sign the rally has hit a confirmed distributional peak.
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Where is Bitcoin trading as of the report?
Bitcoin was trading near $80,180 at the time of the report, nearly flat over the prior 24 hours, according to The Block's BTC price page.
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