WuBlockchain
PlanB, the quantitative Bitcoin analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, noted this week that ETH/BTC is now trading near 0.026 — roughly the level it sat at in March 2016. The implication: Ethereum has effectively given back a decade of relative gains against Bitcoin.
Why it matters
ETH/BTC rallied sharply in 2017 and again in 2021, when Ethereum's DeFi and NFT cycles pulled capital away from Bitcoin and the ratio topped above 0.08. PlanB's read is that the 2023–2024 bull market was the next scheduled window for an ETH/BTC leg up — and it didn't come. The ratio is now back at the floor it set before any of those rotations happened.
For the bull-market thesis that depends on capital rotating from BTC into majors and alts, the chart is the cleanest rebuttal available. A full cycle of underperformance against Bitcoin is hard to square with the idea that ETH is the cycle's primary risk-on trade.
Market impact
The 0.026 level is a multi-year support that has held since 2019. A clean break below it would invalidate the structural bid for ETH relative to BTC and would also weigh on the broader ETH-beta complex — L2s, DeFi governance tokens, and any narrative that relies on capital rotation away from Bitcoin.
Frequently asked questions
-
What is the current ETH/BTC ratio according to PlanB?
PlanB noted ETH/BTC is trading near 0.026, roughly the level it sat at in March 2016, implying Ethereum has erased a decade of relative gains against Bitcoin.
-
Why does the 0.026 level matter for Ethereum?
0.026 has held as multi-year ETH/BTC support since 2019. A clean break below it would invalidate the structural bid for ETH relative to BTC and weigh on the broader ETH-beta complex.
-
Did ETH outperform Bitcoin in the 2023–2024 bull market?
By PlanB's framing, no. ETH/BTC rallied sharply in 2017 and 2021 but failed to deliver a major bull-market leg up during the 2023–2024 cycle.
-
What does this mean for the capital-rotation thesis?
A full cycle of ETH underperformance against Bitcoin is hard to square with the rotation thesis — the idea that capital flows from BTC into majors and alts once Bitcoin's leg is done.
-
Who is PlanB and why does his analysis carry weight?
PlanB is the pseudonymous quantitative analyst behind Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model. His framework is BTC-centric, so his criticism of ETH's relative performance is built around the same Bitcoin-led structure the model assumes.
TheBlock
Crypto Capital Venture
CryptoSlate
Crypto News
CoinDesk
WatcherGuru
Altcoin Daily
Crypto Rank News
Lookonchain