CryptoSlate
ECB's reference rate put EUR/JPY at 181.21 on Sept. 3, down 2.38% from 185.63 on Sept. 1. Arthur Hayes says a break to 140 or below by June 2027 would signal a much larger rise in dollar liquidity. The pair is still 29.4% above that threshold.
His proposed follow-through is not visible in the Fed's plumbing. FIMA repo showed $0 outstanding in the latest H.4.1 release, and the New York Fed scheduled about $17B of reinvestment purchases but no reserve-management purchases for the Aug. 14 to Sept. 14 window.
French markets show vulnerability, not a confirmed funding break. The 10-year yield was 4.21% on Sept. 3, but an OAT auction drew €35.879B of orders for €13.497B served. Hayes remains long Bitcoin and targets Ether at $10,000 by end-2026, but those positions do not confirm the chain.
Frequently asked questions
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How far is EUR/JPY from Hayes's proposed 140 trigger?
At 181.21 on Sept. 3, EUR/JPY was 29.4% above the 140 level Hayes identified for June 2027.
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What did the latest Fed data show about FIMA repo use?
The latest H.4.1 release showed $0 outstanding in FIMA repo, so the foreign-official dollar-borrowing leg of Hayes's framework had not activated at that reading.
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What Fed purchases were scheduled for the current window?
For Aug. 14 to Sept. 14, the New York Fed scheduled about $17B of reinvestment purchases and zero reserve-management purchases.
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What evidence is visible in French sovereign markets?
France's 10-year yield was 4.21% on Sept. 3, while an OAT auction drew €35.879B of orders for €13.497B served.
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Do Hayes's Bitcoin and Ether positions confirm the liquidity thesis?
No. Hayes's structural Bitcoin long and $10,000 Ether target describe his positioning, but do not confirm activation of the EUR/JPY, French funding and Fed liquidity links.
Benjamin Cowen
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